两位华尔街经济学家齐声示警,若美国经济陷入衰退,可能引爆一场债务危机。路透
在美国国会准备讨论是否要延长美国前总统川普2017年实施的减税措施之际,
两位华尔街经济学家日渐关注美国财政处境,齐声示警若美国经济陷入衰退,可能引爆一场债务危机。
国会预算办公室(CBO)估算,美国联邦政府债务占国内生产毛额(GDP)比率将在2034年达到创纪录的116%,超越二战时期,并且将在2054年时触及172%。
Apollo全球管理公司首席经济学家史洛克(Torsten Slok)与摩根大通首席经济学家费洛利(Michael
Feroli),在美国企业研究所(AEI)主办的美国财政处境座谈会上警告,若美国经济再陷入一场经济衰退,可能推升赤字与债务到高于预测的水准,从而触发美国债务危机,震波将扩及全球金融市场。
费洛利表示,大型银行业者资产负债表吸纳美国公债的能力有限,部分原因是金融海啸后的规范,使美国公债市场的根基在衰退导致发债量意外暴增时,摇晃不已,“有人担心,在衰退期间,不只是美国公债要扩大发行,也没有能够中介这些发债量的基础设施”,可能重演以英国2022年9月提出减税计划、致使英国公债市场陷入动盪的情况。
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