美国通膨率居高不下,Fed主席鲍尔预料将在本周宣布利率决策时态度转鹰,暗示决策官员目前预估的今年降息幅度缩小,甚至不排除升息。(路透)
随著美国最新数据显示通膨率居高不下,联准会(Fed)主席鲍尔预料将在本周宣布利率决策时,态度转向“鹰派”,暗示决策官员目前预估的今年降息幅度“缩小”,甚至可能暗示完全不降息,或是不排除升息。
Fed预定美东时间4月30日-5月1日召开利率决策会议,并于美东时间1日下午2时宣布决策,预料将维持基准利率区间于5.25%-5.5%不变。芝加哥商业交易所(CME)的FedWatch工具显示,市场预期Fed本周按兵不动的机率为97.6%。
但基于3月通膨率再度高于预期,鲍尔的立场可能转向“鹰派”。彭博资讯经济学者预期,鲍尔至少将表示,决策官员现在预期的今年降息幅度将“较小”,或暗示不会降息,甚至可能表示不排除升息。
Fed预料也将进一步说明如何放缓缩减资产负债表的速度,并强烈暗示将于7月开始执行。
从3月Fed会议以来,决策官员的谈话显示对通膨下降的信心明显下降,立场也由“鸽派”转向“鹰派”,尤其是芝加哥联邦准备银行总裁古斯比(大鸽派)在决策会前缄默期内仍表示,一连串偏热的通膨数据显示“通膨(下降)进展已经停顿”,Fed必须“重新校准”政策,预示本周决策将转向鹰派。
本周另一个重要的经济数据,为5月3日出炉的4月就业报告,非农业就业人数预料将增加25万人,远少于3月新增的30.3万人;新增就业可能集中于医疗服务等产业,对景气循环高度敏感的产业则将减缓雇用速度,甚至裁员。
4月失业率预估将维持在3.8%,彭博经济学者认为,如果今年底失业率升到4.5%,Fed今年底前将降息2码,否则可能完全不降。
此外,美国30日将公布第1季就业成本指数(ECI),预估将上升1.1%;由于25州及华盛顿特区平均调高最低工资5.8%,预料工资升幅将明显偏高,使Fed更加相信通膨仍然太高。第1季非农生产力报告将在5月2日发布,市场预估仅成长0.7%,远低于上一季的3.2%升幅,也对通膨减缓不利。
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