China GDP has been much underestimated for years

来源: panlm_ 于 2018-01-24 12:00:21 [档案] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读：次 (8422 bytes)

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I use the data from the CIA world factbook (website) to compare physical economies between USA, EU and China (see Table 1).

Physical economy considers contributions from agriculture and industry, but excludes service. In Table 1, both values of GDP based on PPP and exchange rate are given. A few insights stand out from a simple analysis of the data

This is an intriguing topic. The data are listed in the following Table 1 cited from the CIA world factbook (website).

Table 1:Physical economy: A comparison between USA, EU and China

Annual energy consumption (kwh) per capita (data source: CIA World Factbook website - access on Sept 22, 2017)
	Europe Union	USA	China
Popultation	516,195,432	326,625,791	1,379,302,771
Annual energy consumption	2,771,000,000,000	3,913,000,000,000	5,920,000,000,000
Annual energy consumption per capita	5368	11980	4292
GDP (US dollars)_ppp	$19,180,000,000,000	$18,560,000,000,000	$21,270,000,000,000
GDP per capita (US dollars)_ppp	$37,156	$56,823	$15,421
Physical GDP (US dollars)	$5,063,520,000,000	$3,804,800,000,000	$10,486,110,000,000
Physical GDP (US dollars) per capita	$9,809	$11,649	$7,602
Annual energy consumption per capita	5368	11980	4292
GDP(US dollars)_nominal	16,270,000,000,000	$18,560,000,000,000	$11,390,000,000,000
GDP(US dollars)_nominal per capita	$31,519	$56,823	$8,258
Annual energy consumption per capita (AECPC)	5368	11980	4292
Comparison to China in AECPC	1.3	2.8	1.0

The data indicate that USA per capita annual energy consumption (aecpc) is 11980 kwh, the EU aecpc is 5368 kwh, and China is 4292 kwh. In other words, each American people consumes 2.8 times more energy than a people in China each year; a people in EU uses 1.3 times more energy than a people in China a year. However, a American produces $56823 GDP (in terms of exchange rate), seven times higher than a people in China. A people in EU produces $31519 GDP, three times more than a person in China. Such a comparison raises a big question - how can per capita 2.8 times more energy consumption generating 7 times more GDP when USA is compared with China, and 1.3 times more energy usage creating 3 times more GDP when comparing the EU and China on the basis of per capita?

The conclusion is obvious - there must be a problem in estimate of a nation's GDP given the physical law is correct!

It is really surprising to see that China has made a great progress in growing her economy and in improving people's living standard. In fact, common people in China enjoy pretty good life even though more development is still needed in some of the aspects in the near future.

The above data suggest that if a national currency is backed by production (vs consumption), then a US dollar must be equal to 2.8 China Yuan and one Euro should equal 1.3 China Yuan. This implies the China currency is much undervalued when exchanging with the US dollar or Euro. If this is right, then China GDP must be 75 trillion China Yuan (2016)/2.8 US dollar equal to ~$27 trillion US! Thus, China per capita GDP 2016 must be ~US$20000, that might epxlain the average living conditions of people in China!