今天华尔街日报 WSJ 有篇文章中国一季增长 3.8-4.9%。。

来源: 2015-04-27 13:27:46 [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-true-growth-is-a-mysteryeconomists-weigh-the-clues-1430071125

“When China released its tabulation of first-quarter growth earlier this month, the 7% figure—the worst in six years—stirred fears of a deepening slowdown.

It also raised fresh doubt about the trustworthiness of China’s own statistics. ”(二个账本?)

“Growth Likely Overstated,” said a Citibank report, concluding that actual quarterly growth could be below 6% year to year, depending on the factors weighed. Other research firms put their numbers far lower, with Capital Economics pegging the quarter at 4.9%, the Conference Board’s China Center at 4% and Lombard Street Research at 3.8%.

There also is suspicion the shortcomings involve willful doctoring rather than data-collection problems common to India and other developing countries.

“I have to laugh at the official estimates of 7% first-quarter GDP growth. I think that’s completely out of line,” Mr. Wu said.“