ZT: 给达赖喇嘛支招:Surrender the best option for Dalai

Surrender the best option...
By Francesco Sisci

"Tibetans in Tibet are becoming increasingly different from those living outside of Tibet. They listen to different music, watch different TV programs, and even speak a language that is becoming distinct on the two sides of the Himalayan highlands.

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In this sense, a new identity seems to be developing for both Tibetans, who are becoming more integrated into China and increasingly detached from their brethren living in India or abroad,

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Unless one believes there could be a major breakup of China with a civil war and all its trappings, the prospect of an improved climate for exiled Tibetans to talk to Beijing is worsening by the day - also, paradoxically, because of the self-immolations.

What then would I say if I were an adviser to the Dalai Lama? I would tell him that, generally speaking, there are two options on the table:

1. Work toward a civil war in China that could blow up the country, and thus create an opportunity to carve out Tibet's independence or greater autonomy. The possibility of success for this is slim and depends on the general thrust of the countries in the region: are they willing to foment a civil war in China that could kindle chaos in the whole world? In reality, this is still an option, although chances are becoming thinner, as the potential global costs of a civil war in China grow by the day.

2. Surrender to Beijing today rather than tomorrow because the current conditions are better than they will be in future. And in doing so, try to extract as much as possible by presenting a case for an alignment of interests between the Dalai Lama and Beijing. This would mean forfeiting decades of fighting and dreams of independence or great autonomy, but it would avoid the greater split between Tibetans within and outside of Tibet. It will be difficult because the people out of Tibet have lived all their lives according to these dreams, and to smash them in return for nothing will be very painful and hard to explain - especially since the possibility, albeit small, of massive civil war in China still exists.

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Francesco Sisci is a columnist for the Italian daily Il Sole 24 Ore. His e-mail is [e-mail]