As US Decouples From World, Stocks Decouple From USD
With ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) managing to pull over 40 points off overnight lows (bringing back memories of the 11/30 global bailout rampfest), we saw correlated risk assets disconnect one by one as the day proceeded. First to leave the party was FX carry (or more simply the USD) just before Europe closed. Then Gold stabilized and stopped accelerating and credit markets also went only gently higher/stable in the afternoon. Oil kept on lifting with stocks - helping Energy stocks lead the way (up over 4% on the day) - but even Oil went flat within an hour or so of the close. The only other asset that seemed to be correlating and self-reinforcing was the Treasury complex - most specifically the 10Y and the 2s10s30s butterfly but it was the former that had the highest correlation overall and kept going right to the end. Volume did die away towards the end but surged right at the close as average trade size picked up and ES started to roll over a little - pros selling into the close? Who knows but there was little else supporting ES up here on the day and with the 'news' ahead on LTRO take-up - maybe better safe than sorry.
ES and TSYs stayed tick for tick as most other risk assets (specifically DXY above) as the day wore on.
HYG continues to outperform - pulling healthily off the late day dive yesterday. We can't help but get more and more suspicious that whenever we see a decent dive in HYG, the market comes roaring back but maybe that's just our paranoia. ES did outperform broad IG and HY credit this afternoon.
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