文章：中国收货币真那么痛苦吗(刘煜辉；11月25日)
文章作者：刘煜辉 作者单位：金融所 文章出处： 《每日经济新闻》
中国治通胀为什么要收货币？很多人疑惑，收货币能把老百姓关心的菜价、肉价摁下去吗？直接看上去，两者好像没有多少联系。
要回答这个问题，需要看看中国从货币到物价通胀的传递逻辑：货币-资产泡沫-物价。可以看到，这中间隔着个“资产”，是资产吸纳了大量多余的货币，然后开始向物价的各个领域扩散。
土地、地产价格的飙涨直接推动人工价涨，特别是蓝领工人的工资涨，经济学概念叫“生存线压力”，因为低端收入者的劳动报酬大部分要应付日常生活的开销。
农产品价格趋势涨，也是因为人工价涨，务农的报酬受城市务工报酬牵引而涨价（这是经济学机会成本的概念），同时农产品从出土地到城市卖场的中间流通和服务环节，需要涉及大量人工，这些人工价格都是在涨的。
城市服务价格和食品价格上涨是中国式通胀的最主要动力，而它们背后都受到资产价格的驱动。所以，我们说，中国收货币不是直接作用于物价，而是作用于货币到物价的那个中间环节——资产泡沫。
在当下，中国资产泡沫摁下去了，物价通胀的压力自然就解除了。反转过来讲，如果不收货币，人民币资产泡沫还要长时间存在，那么中国通胀的压力可能也是长期挥之不去的，即便政府可以用行政手段来压制。通胀无非以另外一种形式出现而已，如短缺（供给减少）。
收货币，中国经济不可避免要减速，因为随着人民币资产价格下行，信用一定是现减速态势，而中国银行体系90％的信贷，都是以人民币资产抵押品投放的。中国经济中总是存在很多新奇的说法，这些说法往往又多是似是而非，让人难以识辨。而在我看来，经济下行未见得对就业构成多大的威胁。中国经济的速度从来靠的是投资和重化工，而这一块与就业关联不大。
速度下来了，流动性潮水退去，中国的商品价格将大幅下跌，反而增加制造业部门竞争力。它们是活得更好，而不是更坏，有更多的机会雇佣更多的人，而不是被成本逼着用机器替代人工。
中国经济的制造部分抗击打的弹性其实很大，受损的其实是资产部门（地产、银行和大型国企）。这些部门本来就该为中国经济转型支付成本。
我一直认为，中国政府在平滑经济减速的痛苦的作为空间很大。其实道理都是很简单，只要破除垄断，通过减费减税（我以为，在中国现阶段减费，特别是政府减少企业代缴的社保费部分，远比减税对私人部门作用大；增值税体制下，减税有利于资本密集型的国企部门，减费直接有利于吸收大部分就业的私人部门），就能把社会化大生产的四个环节——生产、流通、分配、消费中的后三个环节的生产力（在现代经济中都属于大服务业部门），极大地解放出来，激发企业家精神，创造就业的集群式迸发。
反转过来，随着家庭财富日渐殷实，随着财富开始从政府和国有部门流向家庭，高悬的资产泡沫也就有了软着陆的可能。做实泡沫不就是在发展中解决问题吗？
中国收货币真就那么痛苦吗？关键取决于你想不想解决问题
中国治通胀为什么要收货币？很多人疑惑，收货币能把老百姓关心的菜价、肉价摁下去吗？直接看上去，两者好像没有多少联系。
要回答这个问题，需要看看中国从货币到物价通胀的传递逻辑：货币-资产泡沫-物价。可以看到，这中间隔着个“资产”，是资产吸纳了大量多余的货币，然后开始向物价的各个领域扩散。
土地、地产价格的飙涨直接推动人工价涨，特别是蓝领工人的工资涨，经济学概念叫“生存线压力”，因为低端收入者的劳动报酬大部分要应付日常生活的开销。
农产品价格趋势涨，也是因为人工价涨，务农的报酬受城市务工报酬牵引而涨价（这是经济学机会成本的概念），同时农产品从出土地到城市卖场的中间流通和服务环节，需要涉及大量人工，这些人工价格都是在涨的。
城市服务价格和食品价格上涨是中国式通胀的最主要动力，而它们背后都受到资产价格的驱动。所以，我们说，中国收货币不是直接作用于物价，而是作用于货币到物价的那个中间环节——资产泡沫。
在当下，中国资产泡沫摁下去了，物价通胀的压力自然就解除了。反转过来讲，如果不收货币，人民币资产泡沫还要长时间存在，那么中国通胀的压力可能也是长期挥之不去的，即便政府可以用行政手段来压制。通胀无非以另外一种形式出现而已，如短缺（供给减少）。
收货币，中国经济不可避免要减速，因为随着人民币资产价格下行，信用一定是现减速态势，而中国银行体系90％的信贷，都是以人民币资产抵押品投放的。中国经济中总是存在很多新奇的说法，这些说法往往又多是似是而非，让人难以识辨。而在我看来，经济下行未见得对就业构成多大的威胁。中国经济的速度从来靠的是投资和重化工，而这一块与就业关联不大。
速度下来了，流动性潮水退去，中国的商品价格将大幅下跌，反而增加制造业部门竞争力。它们是活得更好，而不是更坏，有更多的机会雇佣更多的人，而不是被成本逼着用机器替代人工。
中国经济的制造部分抗击打的弹性其实很大，受损的其实是资产部门（地产、银行和大型国企）。这些部门本来就该为中国经济转型支付成本。
我一直认为，中国政府在平滑经济减速的痛苦的作为空间很大。其实道理都是很简单，只要破除垄断，通过减费减税（我以为，在中国现阶段减费，特别是政府减少企业代缴的社保费部分，远比减税对私人部门作用大；增值税体制下，减税有利于资本密集型的国企部门，减费直接有利于吸收大部分就业的私人部门），就能把社会化大生产的四个环节——生产、流通、分配、消费中的后三个环节的生产力（在现代经济中都属于大服务业部门），极大地解放出来，激发企业家精神，创造就业的集群式迸发。
反转过来，随着家庭财富日渐殷实，随着财富开始从政府和国有部门流向家庭，高悬的资产泡沫也就有了软着陆的可能。做实泡沫不就是在发展中解决问题吗？
中国收货币真就那么痛苦吗？关键取决于你想不想解决问题
Chris Martenson Discusses The Future Of Europe And Of The Global Economy
In the following video Chris Martenson - economic analyst at chrismartenson.com and regular guest contributor to Zero Hedge, and James Turk, Director of the GoldMoney Foundation talk about the problems facing the eurozone as well as the global economy. Chris Martenson points out that the whole world simply has too much debt. This is why he believes that there won’t be a real solution to the euro crisis. The big question will rather be who will take losses on the debt, which can’t possibly be repaid. The lack of political leadership and unwillingness to accept reality is contributing to this crisis. Additionally, the monetary tools central banks have traditionally used to revive economies are starting to show less and less effect. In Martenson’s view, the financial sector has become way too large and interlinked across borders, so that a default by one country could bring down the whole financial systems, because credit default swaps would get triggered and could bring down the writers of those derivatives.
James Turk mentions that today, commercial banks as well as central banks are leveraged at unsustainable levels. While both agree that it makes sense to get back to less risky traditional banking and a sound money system, Martenson raises the question of how it will be possible to bring the leverage down to prudent levels again and how to get rid of the huge amount of complex derivatives. That said, Martenson argues that the gold standard has been proven to be a working monetary system with automatic leveling functions. As a result of the coming structural changes to our monetary system, both men recommend owning tangible assets. They point out, that those who act first have a great advantage.
Martenson talks about the misallocation of capital, which occurs when money is being mispriced. The debt bubble was allowed to grow over the last 40 years and is now starting to burst. Due to cheap money, speculation and leverage have grown enormously. The tech stock and housing bubbles were the latest examples of that. He hopes that we will get rid of the unrestrained money systems with all its imbalances and return to some sort of gold standard system. The accumulation of gold by central banks hints to the fact that gold will play a bigger monetary role in the future.
Talking about European Central bank policy, Martenson speculates that the ECB could be revealed as a “paper tiger”, that is unable to stop speculation against European bonds. This could lead to an escalation of the euro crisis if the ECB does not follow the unprecedented example of the Fed in buying up massive amounts of sovereign debt, even though this violates its rules. He wishes more people took the time to understand basic economics; the illusion that government can pay for something without having to collect taxes in the same amount has been created by the constant accumulation of debt. But since debts can’t be grown forever we are now in the early stages of finding that the idea that we can always expand and that debt doesn’t matter is wrong. Martenson is afraid, that our society as a whole is not prepared for this paradigm shift yet. He believes that resource efficiency and access to resources will be much more important in the future.
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DOES ANYONE KNOW IF 2012 COINS ARE BEING RELEASED? and WERE 2011'S OUT BY THIS TIME LAST YEAR? JUST WONDERING IF SOMETHING IS UP?
SOMETHING IS MOST DEFINITELY UP
(not sure about the coins)
Yup Nate, the heavens, are UP. The hades are in the sHades, but that's a whole other matter.
These erudite gentlemen, can't they see that there is not meant to be a re-solution to this crisis?
Fiat money end game? Which signs are not clear, like crystals? Fly like an eagle indeed, so you may be blessed with it's view, where such minutiae lose their importance in the face of the big picture. Which everyone here knows well.
ORI
Join us?
/the-plan/
Chris's Crash Course video series is available free on his website. It offers a great deal of information which shows how the convergence of several factors, including out of control debt and diminishing sources of cheap energy, are going to mean drastic changes in the way we live going forward. Its great information.
well, the 2012 Year of the Dragon coins from the Perth Mint Lunar series are out ... the gold dragon is beautiful.
Did they have to put that frumpy woman on the other side?
Nothing screams VALUE like a parasitic dinosaur.
And some mass murdering, menopausal, monarch ***** on the obverse.
If this helps, I was buying 2010's in December of 2009. Not sure how the squeeze compares now.
many will be out to steal your gold and privacy.
http://expose2.wordpress.com
"The lack of political leadership"
There will NEVER be political leadership until the SHTF because these career politicians since undergrad are 'wet behind the ears' on reality and have no idea how to actually lead but to only maintain the status quo.
'Fire 'em all', as Farage would say, as they are weak in the spine, completely unprepared, and totally underqualified.
Tycoon Socialism — Time to Bring it to an End
HR 1098 - Free Competition in Currencies
anyone who believes keeping the Fed on a gold standard with a peg they could change at will solves anything real hasn't thought this through.
If memory serves , they are available for pre order by this time. By coins I'm assuming you mean ASE's and AGE's.
If memory serves , they are available for pre order by this time. By coins I'm assuming you mean ASE's and AGE's.
TL;DR version: buy gold.
Yawn.
Predicaments Bitchez!
double double toil and trouble
markets crumble
when south seas bubble
Since all our money is loaned onto existence, our economy has to grow exponentially. Martenson proves this point empirically by showing a 99.9% fit of the actual growth curve of the last 40 years to an exponential curve. If we wanted to continue on this path, our debt load would have to double again over the next 10 years. By continually increasing our debt relative to GDP we are making the assumption that our future will always be wealthier than our past. He believes that this assumption is flawed and that the debt loads are already unmanageable. Martenson explains how exponential growth works and why it is so scary that our economy is based on it. In an example he illustrates how unimaginably fast things speed up towards the end of an exponential curve. He shows that an exponential chart can be found in every one of the three “E’s” for instance in GDP growth, oil production, water use or species extinction. Due to the natural limitations on resources, Martenson comes to the conclusion that we are facing a serious energy crisis.This energy predicament is namely that the quantity of oil as well as the quality of oil are in decline. He shows that oil discoveries peaked in 1964 and oil production peaked 40 years later. Martenson also shows how our return on invested energy is rapidly declining – the “cheap and easy” oil fields have already been exploited. In 1930 the energy return for oil was 100:1 or greater. Today it is already down to 3:1 and newer technologies such as corn-based ethanol only provide a 1.5:1 return. Martenson predicts that the time in between oil shocks will get shorter and shorter and that oil prices will go much higher. Not only oil but also other natural resources are being rapidly used up as well. At the current projected pace of use, known reserves for many metals and minerals will be gone within the next 10 to 20 years. The energy needed to get these non-renewable resources out of the ground is growing exponentially. So we live in a world that must grow, but can’t grow and is subject to depletion. The conclusion out of all this is that our money system is poorly designed and that we need to rethink how we do things as quickly as possible.
After finishing his presentation Chris Martenson answers questions regarding a rise in efficiency, alternative technologies and oil prices. He also responds to questions regarding electricity, shale gas, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and uranium and the race for global resources. This video was recorded on November 16 at the Gold & Silver Meeting 2011 in Madrid.I do believe this is the future. Add in some surprises on methane emissions and global warming, collapse of rational political thought, see ZeroHedge.
Gold, silver will not replace that which will be scarce.
Great presentation..very worthwhile.
Short hockey sticks.. long face masks.
I was there. Nice presentation from Chris. How about that free clean energy seawater plant from movie... wall street never sleeps. That will do the trick...right cptn amerka. What TURD of a movie..what were u thinking o.stone... Or Mr. Energy device they used on the time travel Delorean .. its all sci fi ..
p
well, peak oil hits the fans officially in 2013, the price of OIL goes to 200+, gold to 2000+, arable land to ...grow food becomes as expensive as 5th avenue.
Wow, what a schuss downhill this guy is predicting...
As for financial and economic paradigm change, I subscribe to this view 100%. Having been personally witness of the previous Oil paradigm change that Ronald imposed on the world, when Carter was saying just the Opposite, is the greatest tragedy on the Oil/financial front that the world witnessed. Reagan's deregulated model and his telephoned 'red line' ORDER to Fahd of Saud, "open up the faucet full blast, Mack, or I'll blast you out of your oil patch"...in 1982, produced the double whammy of oil depletion and financial asset inflation over the next thirty years.
He is, along with the Oil/MIC lobby, the evil architect of this tragedy, taking us further up/(down for depletion) the exponential curve, that Nixon had started in 1971, by opening the fiat faucet after dismantling BW. Martenson's curves show that very clearly, the irretrievable tipping point on exponential curve occured between 1970-1980.
Irony of history : Peanut Carter had it right and great Helmsman, RR, had it all wrong. And now we pay the piper.
Well put Falak.
ORI
I agree with your basic premise, Falak, but I wonder about the oil price question. Could oil really get to $200/bbl before the economy went into recession? In 2008, $150 was enough to sink us. The economy slowed, consumption declined, price retreated.
A lot of smart people (e.g. Chris Nelder) see this as the new paradigm, with one important detail: each time the cycle repeats, it will take less increase in the oil price to send us into recession. So maybe the next shortage-induced runup only gets to, say, $130, before the economy slows, and the next time only $120, etc.
Cheap oil and cheap credit fueled the last boom. What will drive the next one?
Just wondering...It could be a logistic curve--that would make sense because logistic curves factor in resource limitations or "carrying capacity". They look like exponential curves up to the inflection point. The plan seems to be to depreciate the currency and thus pay off the debts and kick the can down the road through inflation. Can the Fed control this so we don't get hyperinflation?
With a logistic curve, the 99% slowly get ground to dust, but it takes a long time. Perhaps the next 10 to 20 years before everyone--except the banana republic rich--are mired in poverty and live in a police state which is the NWO. There's absolutely no point in making this occur suddenly. So count on 10 to 20 years of increasing poverty for your families and descendants.
Dmitri Orlov has done excellent work on Peak Oil and is worth reading at cluborlov.com. He predicts a sudden drop and not a smooth downward trajectory.
I'm a believer in the slow grind model. However, I think it's going to be the bottom 80%-85% who will be ground up, not the bottom 99%. The US will cling to its myth of the middle class at all costs.
Rocky... I don't know if you have seen this Kyle Bass Video but it is well worth the watch. Pay particular attention to ~ minutes 41 to 44.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V3kpKzd-Yw
As far as implementation towards sound money, how does he feel about combining modern technology (digital currency/Debit cards) with the original 1792 coinage act?
See: http://nesara.org/files/coinage_act_1792.pdf
Under this act the "Dollar" 371 4/16 grain (24.1 g) pure or 416 grain (27.0 g) standard silver was the unit of money
From there the highest value coin was of gold the “Eagle”
$10 dollars =247 4/8 grain (16.0 g) pure or 270 grain (17.5 g)standard gold
The lowest coin was of copper the “Milles” $0.001 1.1 pennyweights (1.7 g) of copper
Seems like a broad enough monetary base to deal with the redenomination issues that always occur when moving from one currency to another.
As the 1792 act stands there is only one minor problem with it and that is the mandating a dual coinage at silver 15-1 ratio to gold. This can be fixed (market exchange ratio can be attained) by fixing one metal as standard and letting the other float.
I agree totally with the exponential growth of money = debt; this is a mere fact, mathematically rooted in the system itself, with all its dire consequences. Regarding world population I am not so sure. The rapidly / exponentially growing world population numbers could be propaganda by TPTB. The numbers are provided by the UN. The UN headquarters is located where? Close to which kind of firms? Just musing. The growth of Megacities is tangible and hard to deny. But is it really thoroughly cross-checked with rural population? How do you measure population in countries who hardly have any administration?
So WHY should TPTB apply that propaganda? I think the inner circles of TPTB know VERY WELL that poverty is a mathematical consequence of their debt-fiat monetary system. So it is handy to make sth else responsible for their poverty: Too many children. Second, the NWO crowd needs allies within the worldwide, clueless, wealthy class. They cannot avoid / omit all sympathy, but too much sympathy for the poor could turn into real action, which is bad (for TPTB). In one's perception, one life is worth less if there is a huge number, growing ever more. So, if there is war, well that is very bad, but not too bad... I mean there is no limit on how cynical their means are.
Are you saying that there aren't enough SNAP cards to go around even if we all share and get along and stuff?
I love you,
You love me,
We're a happy family,
with a great big hug,
and a kiss from me to you,
Won't you say you love me TOO!
I love you,
You love me,
We're best friends like friends should be,
With a great big hug,
And a kiss from me to you,
Won't you say you love me too
The only math that matters in Europe at present
2+2=240 (at 60X leverage)
all good kumrads you can tell by their altruistic smell - E. E. Cummings
Thanks, Tyler...Very good video!
Chris Martenson, ROCKS!
there in on it
.
too
... we're all "in on it" - like it or NOT
Yes.
And that is why the Tea Parties are correct.
And that is why all rational people need to vote for their candidates in the next general election.
It's just that simple:)
>> It's just that simple
I will say your solution is simplistic, but it's not that simple. What TP candidates do you think we should vote for and why? What policies are they going to impliment that will make a diffferrence? AFAICT TP=SOS
Simplistic is to blame the bankers for the problems, and by default mitigate the damage that the politicians did by claiming that they were controled/mainipulated etc. This is real tinfoiled hat,whackjob,crazytown stuff.
As to TP, I can't get over the level of hatered by establishment Republicans for the TP freshmen. This was pretty obvious in the debt ceiling debate, if you watched it closely. At the end of the day, the US has a spending problem. Any rational person can see this. But yet it is only the TP that are addressing this root cause.
Or to put it another way. Does anybody seriously think that if the government cut spending say 15% across the board, or reverted back to the 2006 spending levels in absolute terms, that the Federal budget would not be in a better position?
Once again, it's just that simple:)
There is not enough income to pay back all the debt. Ever. Budget cuts might put some pressure on the bleeding, and would be useful, but it does not get at the core issue.
The current "system" is NOT sustainable.
you know the new norm to keep the world warm without burning fossil fuel? There is a renewable bio-fuel, its called making love. That is sustainable as long as there is life. And the good things in life are free of debt!
Que the bass guitar...
Right. My two young girls have been born into a system that guarantees they will be burdened by unpayable debts. The accumulated debts, or savings, cannot be repaid in the long run, which is why it must fail. Personally I resist going into debt and frankly don't want anyone indebted to me. This is why I try to keep my economy as local as possible and have my trades evened out in a timely manner.
>> But yet it is only the TP that are addressing this root cause.
As long as the TP excludes the MIC from serious consideration in spending cuts, they'll get no respect.
The? funny thing is, banks are over-leveraged they refuse to lend (create money out of thin air) which causes a shortage of money/credit in circulation, which in turn makes it impossible for people to pay back the fraudulent loans, which in turn means we need more bailouts to keep the bankers from losing THEIR house and THEIR car and THEIR Yacht and THEIR JOB.
So in order for 2 - 3 men to keep their wealth/jobs, MILLIONS must lost THEIRS.
Banks refuse to lend because they have capital requirements. Second, they have a bunch of bad debt on their books that they are not MtM. And lastly, bank stocks are trading around 50% of their book value (at least in Euroland), so the banks can't entertain any capital raising exercises. Just thought you might want to know:)
The banks are in the business of laundering counterfeit money, They make a loan, money is created put into circulation.
Yes the banks have a problem because they have capital requirements, but the banks are violating gaap and are using their own proprietary accounting, there is no reason to actually follow any cap requirements because there actually is no oversight.
The banks can counterfeit as much money as pleases them and the government is powerless to stop them, and atm this is their only hope.... they need to put more money in circulation than there is debt (for the first time in history) OR they need to write down the debt they hold by 30 - 50% across the board so that it actually becomes POSSIBLE to sustain the current status quo without poring on more debt.
It's like our boat is sinking and instead of filling buckets with water and throwing it overboard , we are filling buckets and leaving them on the boat.... the water is still on the boat, it's just in buckets.
Several observations:
Too much debt: Yes. Not a problem on household level since bankruptcy resets this problem. Problem really is on the government side. Markets could control this, but are being corrupted by politicians. In turn, politicians are providing services to their constituants, that they need to finance in debt market. I was amazed that the debt ceiling limitation was used by the ratings agencies as a negative. It appeared as if the ratings agencies wanted more debt issued. The answer here is quite simple, i.e. limited governement, that which the Tea Party movement is proposing. But somehow this element is being left out of the conversation. You just got to wonder why:(
Banks have too much debt on their books: True. But it's just the European banks that are insolvant. The US banks have a knock on problem since they most probably issued the insurance on this bad debt. You know, the CDS's. But you cant' through all the banks into on bag on this one, unless you are trying to make an idealogical point. Hint, hint, know what I mean?
The debt dynamic is the same regardless of whether your a household or a nation state: No truer words have ever been said. As to the economies growing at a much slower pace than the aggregate level of debt, yes. This is how BIG government, dare I call it the socialist nanny states functions. Tea Parties, right agian.
Perception catching up with reality: Yep. But like M says, we have known this for quite some time. As to reality, it has also been corrupted by the politicians. In Euroland, the politicians strong armed the banks into lending to them at below market rates. Anyone out there wonder why the holders of EU debt are exclusively the EU banks and insurance companies (outside of the stupid reserve managers/whose politicians decided that they needed a second reserve currency). The answer is that the American/Asians banks knew that the rates were below market rates and did touch the crap. Just goes to show you, not all bankers are the same.
Politicians wanting to protect their own jobs: After the frog march of the Demolemmings over the cliff to enact ObamaCare, this last statement is either naive or downright dishonest. Politicians protect there potential net worth. If they think they can make more by voting for ObamaCare and losing the next election, then they will do it. They got/get paid off at the back end. A good reference is Nigel Farage expose about how the EU political class is bribing the Croats to get them into the Eurozone.
Politicians and banker interests are aligned: Yes. Because the pols strongarmed the banks/insurance co. into buying gov debt that is now worthless, they created a problem in the banking sector. So now they are trying to figure out a way to save the banking sector. As to shifting the risk to the general population, yep. But it was the government services that was consumed by the general population, and it is they who will have to pay. How ironic. As to banker bonuses and the politicians payoffs, yea that's wrong. But it's a small piece of the pie and not the real problem here.
Who controls who: I guess when you are trying to run with a narrative that it's the bankers fault, stupid questions like this must be asked. Just to confuse the prols, I guess.
Anyways, this gets me to 5:44 of the tape. Nothing of any substance, just your general OWS/Main Stream Media narrative. Keeps the basement dwellers feeling warm and fuzzy inside, makes the bankers into scapegoats, but doesn't really provide any sound analysis let alone begin to address how to solve the problem.
:(((((