Beat Wittmann 经济形势能否改善，这取决于政策决定如何，且取决于公司是否继续进行扩展投资，以及消费者是否进行消费

Recession 'Three Months' Away: Manager

Published: Tuesday, 16 Aug 2011 | 3:42 AM ET

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By: Catherine Boyle
Staff Writer, CNBC.com

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 The next recession could happen within a quarter of a year, one fund manager told CNBC Tuesday, as weak German economic growth figures were announced.

"What we see is a soft patch and double dip recession risk three months down the line," Beat Wittmann, ceo of Dynapartners, told CNBC.

 "The markets are discounting this soft patch, but it could get worse," he said.

 "It depends on political decisions and whether companies are investing into expansion and whether consumers are spending."

Weaker-than-expected GDP figures for Germany, announced Tuesday, were greeted with groans from investors ahead of a key meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

Seasonally adjusted growth of 0.1 percent in the second quarter was below the expected 0.5 percent rise, and down substantially from the 1.3 percent recorded in the first quarter.

Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, had staged a relatively strong recovery from the recession, while countries such as Italy and Spain looked more vulnerable. Its key Dax index of stocks fell in early trade Tuesday [.GDAXI  5994.90    -27.34  (-0.45%)   ] .

While Merkel's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble has officially ruled out issuing a eurobond without further fiscal integration in the euro region, it is increasingly being brought up as a solution to the euro zone's debt problems.

The country has also ruled out an EU tax, mooted by European Commission President José Manuel Barroso.

Growth in Germany's traditionally strong exports were outpaced by import growth in the second quarter.

Private consumption and construction investment were particularly weak.

"This comes after the last few weeks of volatility and corrections in capital markets," said Wittmann, who described the German figures as "pretty bad."

"Construction is driven by infrastructure projects, particularly long and medium term projects."

Coming after French GDP for the quarter slowed to zero growth, and trouble elsewhere in the euro zone, the German data could spark another decline in stock markets.

"We are in a post crisis environment. It's really driven by weakening growth levels," said Wittmann.

"Markets are discounting mechanisms and we expect that that is going to continue.

 

基金经理：距离经济衰退仅有“三个月”之遥

2011年08月16日 18:21 来源： 环球外汇网 【字体：大 中 小】 网友评论

    周二（8月16日）发布的德国经济增长数据表现疲软，一名基金经理称，下一轮衰退将可能发生在未来三个月内。

    Dynapartners的CEO Beat Wittmann表示：“我们所能预见到的是，未来三个月内将出现彻底的局部疲软和二次衰退风险。市场正在忽视这种局部疲软，但其有可能变得更糟。”

    他称，经济形势能否改善，这取决于政策决定如何，且取决于公司是否继续进行扩展投资，以及消费者是否进行消费。

    周二发布的德国GDP数据差于预期，引发了投资者的阵阵呻吟。经季调后的第二季度GDP季率仅增长0.1%，差于预期的0.5%，且大幅低于第一季度的1.3%。继此前法国第二季度GDP零增长之后，德国数据将激发新一轮的股市衰退。

    周二晚些时候，德国总理默克尔与法国总统萨科齐将举行一轮关键会谈。尽管德国财长朔伊布勒（Wolfgang Schaeuble）已正式排除了欧元区在缺乏进一步财政整合的情况下发行欧洲债券的可能，欧元债券已越来越作为欧债问题的解决方案而被提出。

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