“中国的目标是在不改变现有秩序的前提下成长和发展。我们正努力使我们的邻国也能从中受益。”
中国一直忠实地遵照邓小平的“永不出头”的政策， 强调「韬光养晦」，「聚精会神搞建设，一心一意谋发展」。
中国正准备“和平崛起”
译自2003年12月30日《国际先驱论坛报》
作者：船桥洋一（Yoichi Funabashi）译者：郑小峰（芝加哥）
首发于光明观察，转载请注明译者及出处；本译文仅供参考，引用请查对原文。
东京
曾几何时，中国的领导人把该国描述成一个贫困的发展中国家，这并不是谦逊之辞。但是过去的二十年里，中国见证了惊人的经济增长，以及军事实力的增强和随之而来的政治影响力。没有人怀疑“中国的崛起”了。可是，这会不会和以前的新兴大国一样破坏地区和国际稳定呢？中国说，它会寻求一种“和平崛起”的进程。在很大程度上，亚洲未来的稳定将系于这一保证。
中国的崛起——或者说再次崛起——的历史意义毫无疑地比得上甚至超过战后日本的崛起。北京的目标是在2020前使人均国民生产总值增长4倍，达到小康水平。但中国崛起将会以何种方式，以及中国将会如何看待世界和对外政策，都还是未知数。
在国际政治中，一个国家的崛起方式常常比其崛起的事实本身对世界有更剧烈的后果。与之相随的速度，意识形态和对国际力量平衡的冲击会造成其它国家猜疑、顾忌、嫉妒和恐惧，也可能引起反感。德国在19世纪末，日本在20世纪初所取得的令人瞩目的成就就引起了旧强权相当大的反应。
中国的崛起同样可能引起上述反应。中国的很多方面被认为是有可能改变现状并引起忧虑的力量：人口数量；低工资水平；“大跃进”式的经济增长；环境破坏；北京对一党制的坚持；排外的民族主义；和与美国可能发生的冲突。
可是，当我与数位中国外交官和学者一起参加最近的一次国际会议时，我发现中国自己比其他人更清楚地意识到这些危机。一位来自北京一家与政府有联系的研究机构的学者说：“中国的目标是在不改变现有秩序的前提下成长和发展。我们正努力使我们的邻国也能从中受益。”他还告诉我，中国正在寻求和平崛起。
在处理与美国的关系时，中国一直忠实地遵照邓小平的“永不出头”的政策。现在，中国正专注于国内经济建设，并不对外投送力量。但这是因为它还处于发展阶段。当它超越了“小康”阶段，中国会不会变得傲慢呢？
和平崛起的观念包含了一个长期战略。在一个我最近参加的聚会中，一个中国政协成员问道：“历史上的帝国或强权是如何崛起的？它们引起了怎么样的反应？我们应该怎么做以避免过度注意？这是我们内部现在正在研究的问题。”
一位来自中国一家有影响的机构的学者称：“我们正在研究美苏冷战的起源。它是怎么发生的？没有办法避免吗？有些人认为美中冷战是不可避免的，我们能做些什么事情来预防呢？”
除了限制某些在美国政界流行的“中国威胁论”，中国和平崛起的观念看上去也在为中国的大国外交做准备，一个例子就是北京为朝鲜危机而主持的六方会谈。
在《外交》杂志2003年11/12月一期中，Evan Medeiros和M. Taylor Fravel撰文指出了中国外交政策专家的看法：中国应该摒弃它长期怀有的“受害者心态”，转为“大国心态”。这些专家一定注意到，没有比持有受害者心态的新兴大国对世界的威胁更大的了。
那么，中国是否能轻易驱散它自19世纪中叶以来一直怀有的屈辱和受害者心态呢？半殖民地化，广东、上海和青岛的外国租界，日本的侵略及满洲国的建立，这一切历史事实至今仍然很敏感。甚至在150年后，这些对民族荣光的深深的创伤也许仍需要时间愈合。
今天，互联网上充斥着中国民众复仇性和排外的观点。当我指出这点时，一家北京研究机构的负责人说：“中国的主流是冷静的，对局势的分析是客观的。请不要对网上的观点照单全收。”我当然希望如此。
中国人倾向于隐藏他们对日本的憎恶，而反美的情绪则是明显的，特别是在互联网上，这已到了让人不安的地步。比方说，一次最近的民意调查显示90%的中国人相信是CIA把“严重急性呼吸道综合症”（SARS）投放到中国的。现在，这种以及其它一些相似的针对美国的阴谋论司空见惯而非例外。
至于中国领导层对美国的态度，北京似乎严格遵照邓小平“永不出头”的政策行事。但有些人怀疑中国领导人是在采取毛泽东的“持久战”战略——耐心等待美国的衰落——以及邓小平1991年关于“韬光养晦”的指示。
中国现在面临两项重大挑战。第一，作为和平崛起战略的一部分，中国必须学会尊重和遵守国际关系准则。中国要学会平等对待其他国家，特别是其它亚洲国家。现在再也不是各国对天朝上国称臣朝贡的时代了。
第二，中国需要小心地寻找防卫美国的办法。中国不能呈现为一种威胁，但同时华盛顿又必须接受中国新的方向和战略。
就这些和其它方面而言，中国已经开始大步向前迈进。中国知识分子坦白地表达了这些观点本身就已经是一种重大的变化，这是走入正确方向的重要一步。这难道不就是“和平崛起”过程的一部分吗？
作者是日本《朝日新闻》的专栏作家和首席外交事务记者。
附：原文网址及内容
http://www.iht.com/articles/123106.htm
China is preparing a 'peaceful ascendancy'Yoichi Funabashi IHTTuesday, December 30, 2003
Asia's future
TOKYO There was a time when Chinese leaders described their country as a poor, developing country. It was no false modesty. But in the past two decades China has witnessed prodigious economic growth, with an increase in its military might and attendant political clout. There is no doubt about "the rise of China." But will it, like many a rising power before, disturb the neighborhood and destabilize the world? China says it will pursue a "peaceful ascendancy." The future of peace in Asia will to a large extent hang on that promise.
The rise - or rather re-emergence - of China promises to be a historic undertaking comparable to or even greater than that of postwar Japan. Beijing's target is to increase its per capita gross domestic product fourfold by 2020, to attain what it calls a state of xiaokang, or relative comfort. But what form China's rise will take, and how China will come to view the world and foreign policy, is uncertain.
In international politics, how a country rises often has more drastic consequences for the world than the fact of the rise itself. The accompanying speed, ideology and impact on the international balance of power cause other countries to harbor suspicion, caution, jealousy and fear, and can trigger antipathy. The remarkable advances of Germany in the late 19th century and Japan at the beginning of the 20th sparked considerable reactions from established powers.
The rise of China could trigger all of the above reactions. Many aspects of China are regarded as forces that could change the status quo and provoke anxiety: the size of its population; its low wages; its "great leap forward" in economic growth; environmental destruction; Beijing's insistence on maintaining a one-party system; exclusionary nationalism; and possible confrontation with the United States.
When I took part in a recent international conference alongside several Chinese diplomats and researchers, however, I learned that China itself is more aware of these dangers than anyone else. A researcher at a Beijing-based, government-affiliated research organization said: "China aims to grow and advance without upsetting existing orders. We are trying to rise in a way that benefits our neighbors." I was told that China is pursuing a process of heping jueqi, or peaceful ascendancy.
As for relations with the United States, China has been faithfully following Deng Xiaoping's advice to Jiang Zemin to "never act haughtily." For now, China is concentrating on domestic economic construction and refraining from projecting its power externally. But this is because it is still in the development phase. Once it surpasses a state of "relative comfort," will it become "haughty"?
The concept of peaceful ascendancy appears to imply a long-term strategy. At the recent gathering I attended, a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference asked: "How did historic empires and major powers rise and what reactions did they trigger? What should we do so as not to cause excessive wariness? This is what we are currently studying internally."
A researcher at an influential Chinese institute said: "We are studying the origin of the U.S.-Soviet cold war. Why did it happen? Was there no way to prevent it? Some see that a U.S.-China cold war is inevitable, but what can we do to prevent it?"
In addition to containing the "China threat" theory popular in some U.S. political circles, it appears that China's concept of peaceful ascendancy is also aimed at laying the groundwork for major power diplomacy, as can be seen in Beijing's hosting of the six-party talks over the North Korean nuclear and missile problem.
An article in the November-December issue of Foreign Affairs magazine by Evan Medeiros and M. Taylor Fravel presented the views of experts on Chinese foreign policy that China should overcome its long-held "victim mentality" and adopt a "great power mentality" instead. These experts must be aware that there is no greater threat to the world than the emergence of a major power in possession of a victim mentality.
Still, can China readily dispel the humiliation and victim mentality it has harbored since the mid-19th century? The semi-colonization and construction of foreign settlements at Canton, Shanghai and Qingdao, and the Japanese invasion and establishment of Manchukuo, are still sources of acute sensitivity. Even after 150 years these deep wounds to China's pride may yet need time to heal.
Today, the Internet is flooded with Chinese public opinion obsessed with vengeful, xenophobic thoughts. When I pointed this out, the leader of a Beijing research institute remarked: "China's mainstream is more calm and analyzes the situation objectively. Please don't accept Internet public opinion without question." I certainly hope that's true.
Chinese people tend to keep their antipathy toward Japan bottled up, but anti-American sentiments are in full evidence, particularly on the Internet, and have become a source of considerable unease. For instance, a recent opinion poll reported that 90 percent of Chinese people believed the CIA planted severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in China. This and similar conspiracy theories toward the United States are now the rule rather than the exception.
As far as the Chinese leadership's attitude to the United States is concerned, Beijing appears to be faithfully enacting Deng Xiaoping's maxim of never acting haughtily toward the United States. But some suspect China's leaders are following Mao Zedong's "protracted strategy" - waiting patiently for the United States to burn out - and Deng Xiaoping's directive of 1991, which advised that China should "hide our capacities and bide our time."
For China there are two formidable challenges ahead. First, as part of its strategy of peaceful ascendancy China must learn to respect and observe the rule of law on the international stage. China also needs to accustom itself to treating others as equals, particularly other Asian countries. These are no longer the days of the Middle Kingdom, to which all others paid obeisance and sent gifts.
Second, China needs to tread a careful path in its policy toward the United States. China should not present a threat, but at the same time Washington also has to accept China's new direction and strategy.
On these and other matters, China has already begun to take large strides forward. The fact that Chinese intellectuals have come to voice such views so frankly is in itself a major change and an important step in the right direction. Is this not also part of the process of "peaceful ascendancy"?
The writer is a columnist and chief diplomatic correspondent for the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun. This comment was reprinted with permission from YaleGlobal Online (www.yaleglobal.yale.edu).
文章来源：译者赐稿
本文仅代表作者观点
中国一直忠实地遵照邓小平的“永不出头”的政策， 强调「韬光养晦」，「聚精会神搞建设，一心一意谋发展」。
中国正准备“和平崛起”
译自2003年12月30日《国际先驱论坛报》
作者：船桥洋一（Yoichi Funabashi）译者：郑小峰（芝加哥）
首发于光明观察，转载请注明译者及出处；本译文仅供参考，引用请查对原文。
东京
曾几何时，中国的领导人把该国描述成一个贫困的发展中国家，这并不是谦逊之辞。但是过去的二十年里，中国见证了惊人的经济增长，以及军事实力的增强和随之而来的政治影响力。没有人怀疑“中国的崛起”了。可是，这会不会和以前的新兴大国一样破坏地区和国际稳定呢？中国说，它会寻求一种“和平崛起”的进程。在很大程度上，亚洲未来的稳定将系于这一保证。
中国的崛起——或者说再次崛起——的历史意义毫无疑地比得上甚至超过战后日本的崛起。北京的目标是在2020前使人均国民生产总值增长4倍，达到小康水平。但中国崛起将会以何种方式，以及中国将会如何看待世界和对外政策，都还是未知数。
在国际政治中，一个国家的崛起方式常常比其崛起的事实本身对世界有更剧烈的后果。与之相随的速度，意识形态和对国际力量平衡的冲击会造成其它国家猜疑、顾忌、嫉妒和恐惧，也可能引起反感。德国在19世纪末，日本在20世纪初所取得的令人瞩目的成就就引起了旧强权相当大的反应。
中国的崛起同样可能引起上述反应。中国的很多方面被认为是有可能改变现状并引起忧虑的力量：人口数量；低工资水平；“大跃进”式的经济增长；环境破坏；北京对一党制的坚持；排外的民族主义；和与美国可能发生的冲突。
可是，当我与数位中国外交官和学者一起参加最近的一次国际会议时，我发现中国自己比其他人更清楚地意识到这些危机。一位来自北京一家与政府有联系的研究机构的学者说：“中国的目标是在不改变现有秩序的前提下成长和发展。我们正努力使我们的邻国也能从中受益。”他还告诉我，中国正在寻求和平崛起。
在处理与美国的关系时，中国一直忠实地遵照邓小平的“永不出头”的政策。现在，中国正专注于国内经济建设，并不对外投送力量。但这是因为它还处于发展阶段。当它超越了“小康”阶段，中国会不会变得傲慢呢？
和平崛起的观念包含了一个长期战略。在一个我最近参加的聚会中，一个中国政协成员问道：“历史上的帝国或强权是如何崛起的？它们引起了怎么样的反应？我们应该怎么做以避免过度注意？这是我们内部现在正在研究的问题。”
一位来自中国一家有影响的机构的学者称：“我们正在研究美苏冷战的起源。它是怎么发生的？没有办法避免吗？有些人认为美中冷战是不可避免的，我们能做些什么事情来预防呢？”
除了限制某些在美国政界流行的“中国威胁论”，中国和平崛起的观念看上去也在为中国的大国外交做准备，一个例子就是北京为朝鲜危机而主持的六方会谈。
在《外交》杂志2003年11/12月一期中，Evan Medeiros和M. Taylor Fravel撰文指出了中国外交政策专家的看法：中国应该摒弃它长期怀有的“受害者心态”，转为“大国心态”。这些专家一定注意到，没有比持有受害者心态的新兴大国对世界的威胁更大的了。
那么，中国是否能轻易驱散它自19世纪中叶以来一直怀有的屈辱和受害者心态呢？半殖民地化，广东、上海和青岛的外国租界，日本的侵略及满洲国的建立，这一切历史事实至今仍然很敏感。甚至在150年后，这些对民族荣光的深深的创伤也许仍需要时间愈合。
今天，互联网上充斥着中国民众复仇性和排外的观点。当我指出这点时，一家北京研究机构的负责人说：“中国的主流是冷静的，对局势的分析是客观的。请不要对网上的观点照单全收。”我当然希望如此。
中国人倾向于隐藏他们对日本的憎恶，而反美的情绪则是明显的，特别是在互联网上，这已到了让人不安的地步。比方说，一次最近的民意调查显示90%的中国人相信是CIA把“严重急性呼吸道综合症”（SARS）投放到中国的。现在，这种以及其它一些相似的针对美国的阴谋论司空见惯而非例外。
至于中国领导层对美国的态度，北京似乎严格遵照邓小平“永不出头”的政策行事。但有些人怀疑中国领导人是在采取毛泽东的“持久战”战略——耐心等待美国的衰落——以及邓小平1991年关于“韬光养晦”的指示。
中国现在面临两项重大挑战。第一，作为和平崛起战略的一部分，中国必须学会尊重和遵守国际关系准则。中国要学会平等对待其他国家，特别是其它亚洲国家。现在再也不是各国对天朝上国称臣朝贡的时代了。
第二，中国需要小心地寻找防卫美国的办法。中国不能呈现为一种威胁，但同时华盛顿又必须接受中国新的方向和战略。
就这些和其它方面而言，中国已经开始大步向前迈进。中国知识分子坦白地表达了这些观点本身就已经是一种重大的变化，这是走入正确方向的重要一步。这难道不就是“和平崛起”过程的一部分吗？
作者是日本《朝日新闻》的专栏作家和首席外交事务记者。
附：原文网址及内容
http://www.iht.com/articles/123106.htm
China is preparing a 'peaceful ascendancy'Yoichi Funabashi IHTTuesday, December 30, 2003
Asia's future
TOKYO There was a time when Chinese leaders described their country as a poor, developing country. It was no false modesty. But in the past two decades China has witnessed prodigious economic growth, with an increase in its military might and attendant political clout. There is no doubt about "the rise of China." But will it, like many a rising power before, disturb the neighborhood and destabilize the world? China says it will pursue a "peaceful ascendancy." The future of peace in Asia will to a large extent hang on that promise.
The rise - or rather re-emergence - of China promises to be a historic undertaking comparable to or even greater than that of postwar Japan. Beijing's target is to increase its per capita gross domestic product fourfold by 2020, to attain what it calls a state of xiaokang, or relative comfort. But what form China's rise will take, and how China will come to view the world and foreign policy, is uncertain.
In international politics, how a country rises often has more drastic consequences for the world than the fact of the rise itself. The accompanying speed, ideology and impact on the international balance of power cause other countries to harbor suspicion, caution, jealousy and fear, and can trigger antipathy. The remarkable advances of Germany in the late 19th century and Japan at the beginning of the 20th sparked considerable reactions from established powers.
The rise of China could trigger all of the above reactions. Many aspects of China are regarded as forces that could change the status quo and provoke anxiety: the size of its population; its low wages; its "great leap forward" in economic growth; environmental destruction; Beijing's insistence on maintaining a one-party system; exclusionary nationalism; and possible confrontation with the United States.
When I took part in a recent international conference alongside several Chinese diplomats and researchers, however, I learned that China itself is more aware of these dangers than anyone else. A researcher at a Beijing-based, government-affiliated research organization said: "China aims to grow and advance without upsetting existing orders. We are trying to rise in a way that benefits our neighbors." I was told that China is pursuing a process of heping jueqi, or peaceful ascendancy.
As for relations with the United States, China has been faithfully following Deng Xiaoping's advice to Jiang Zemin to "never act haughtily." For now, China is concentrating on domestic economic construction and refraining from projecting its power externally. But this is because it is still in the development phase. Once it surpasses a state of "relative comfort," will it become "haughty"?
The concept of peaceful ascendancy appears to imply a long-term strategy. At the recent gathering I attended, a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference asked: "How did historic empires and major powers rise and what reactions did they trigger? What should we do so as not to cause excessive wariness? This is what we are currently studying internally."
A researcher at an influential Chinese institute said: "We are studying the origin of the U.S.-Soviet cold war. Why did it happen? Was there no way to prevent it? Some see that a U.S.-China cold war is inevitable, but what can we do to prevent it?"
In addition to containing the "China threat" theory popular in some U.S. political circles, it appears that China's concept of peaceful ascendancy is also aimed at laying the groundwork for major power diplomacy, as can be seen in Beijing's hosting of the six-party talks over the North Korean nuclear and missile problem.
An article in the November-December issue of Foreign Affairs magazine by Evan Medeiros and M. Taylor Fravel presented the views of experts on Chinese foreign policy that China should overcome its long-held "victim mentality" and adopt a "great power mentality" instead. These experts must be aware that there is no greater threat to the world than the emergence of a major power in possession of a victim mentality.
Still, can China readily dispel the humiliation and victim mentality it has harbored since the mid-19th century? The semi-colonization and construction of foreign settlements at Canton, Shanghai and Qingdao, and the Japanese invasion and establishment of Manchukuo, are still sources of acute sensitivity. Even after 150 years these deep wounds to China's pride may yet need time to heal.
Today, the Internet is flooded with Chinese public opinion obsessed with vengeful, xenophobic thoughts. When I pointed this out, the leader of a Beijing research institute remarked: "China's mainstream is more calm and analyzes the situation objectively. Please don't accept Internet public opinion without question." I certainly hope that's true.
Chinese people tend to keep their antipathy toward Japan bottled up, but anti-American sentiments are in full evidence, particularly on the Internet, and have become a source of considerable unease. For instance, a recent opinion poll reported that 90 percent of Chinese people believed the CIA planted severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in China. This and similar conspiracy theories toward the United States are now the rule rather than the exception.
As far as the Chinese leadership's attitude to the United States is concerned, Beijing appears to be faithfully enacting Deng Xiaoping's maxim of never acting haughtily toward the United States. But some suspect China's leaders are following Mao Zedong's "protracted strategy" - waiting patiently for the United States to burn out - and Deng Xiaoping's directive of 1991, which advised that China should "hide our capacities and bide our time."
For China there are two formidable challenges ahead. First, as part of its strategy of peaceful ascendancy China must learn to respect and observe the rule of law on the international stage. China also needs to accustom itself to treating others as equals, particularly other Asian countries. These are no longer the days of the Middle Kingdom, to which all others paid obeisance and sent gifts.
Second, China needs to tread a careful path in its policy toward the United States. China should not present a threat, but at the same time Washington also has to accept China's new direction and strategy.
On these and other matters, China has already begun to take large strides forward. The fact that Chinese intellectuals have come to voice such views so frankly is in itself a major change and an important step in the right direction. Is this not also part of the process of "peaceful ascendancy"?
The writer is a columnist and chief diplomatic correspondent for the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun. This comment was reprinted with permission from YaleGlobal Online (www.yaleglobal.yale.edu).
文章来源：译者赐稿
本文仅代表作者观点
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