My Guess about MH 17

Based on the facts that the airplane has disintergrated in the sky, the mechanical failure may be phrased out.  Then a bomb in the baggage could be a potential cause.  

If the airplane is shot down by missile , the most possible side to do so is Ukraine.  Among the three sides in the area, Russia has no reason to shoot down the airplane since it has no gain but harm from this.  The restraining effort that Russia and Puting demonstrated recently to reduce the Ukraine tension is the Russian effort not to turn Ukraine from its brother into an enemy. 

The rebels have no such expensive weapon system.  The airplanes shot down by the rebels were all in low altitude proving that they do not have missiles to hit objects in high altitude.  Also the area controlled by the rebels is too small to deploy a radar system to track the plane for a sufficient distance for supporting the missile system before a precise hit.  According to MH, the plane was requested to lower down altitude by 610 m after entering Ukraine airspace, this would further complicate the tracking task.  

On the other hand, Ukraine has the hardware and air defense system to readily accomplish the task easily.  It aslo need to cry for international attention as long as it can blame to the other.  The quickly released telephone record saying that it was done by the rebels with help from Russia could backfire.  Unless it is purposed to point fingure to the others, analyzing the telephone records could not be placed as a high priority in accident analysis.  The eager for Ukraine to blame the incident on the others so quickly also indictaes who did it.

所有跟帖： 

• MD国内的媒体舆论很值得关注。 -图灵冬奥- ♂ (102 bytes) () 07/18/2014 postreply 10:36:59

• too simple，sometimes naive -图灵冬奥- ♂ (0 bytes) () 07/18/2014 postreply 14:11:21

• While I agree to most of your analysis, I still think it is -Giantfan- ♂ (1243 bytes) () 07/18/2014 postreply 14:23:27

• Agree and disagree with you. -Happyyl- ♂ (777 bytes) () 07/18/2014 postreply 19:30:52