希腊问题最后更新: 尘埃落定未有时

前言

以前讨论的时候说过，希腊债务问题绝不是简单的经济问题，里面有很多政治上的较量。除了俄国和美国及欧洲各国的紧张关系，还有法德一直以来在欧盟内部的较量以及欧盟各国左翼和右翼的斗争。各种势力的角逐以及利益的争夺，使得希腊问题的解决愈加复杂，很难预测结果。

我会持续更新直到尘埃落定

本帖最后更新

因为最新资讯总是贴不上来，我就大致谈谈一下最近的发展。

欧盟各首脑经过长达17个小时的协商，终于同意有条件地提供希腊大约€86bn的资金援助。在德国的强硬之下，这些条件，对希腊而言，可算是丧权辱国。在Twitter 上，希腊民众 （也有其他欧洲国家的民众）称之为政变。

希腊未来的改革，会在欧盟的严密监管下，这意味着将一部分政治权力拱手交给了欧盟。同时希腊还需提供大约€55bn的国有资产，由单独基金组织管理，预备将来私有化，实际上是一种变相的资产抵押。

另外的条件之一就是希腊政府必须于本周三之前通过关于四个关于税收，退休养老，和私有化等一系列经济改革的法令。

这第一步对希腊首相来说就举步维艰，他正面临自己的内阁和党内的反对，预计本周内他不得不内阁重组，换掉反对他的成员。与此同时，希腊已经出现了一些抗议该协议的活动，公务员预计周三举行罢工。希腊首相未来毋庸置疑会面临自己选民的反对。

因此，尽管欧洲股市因此协议而上涨，舆论普遍不乐观。

于此同时，这个协议也对欧盟的未来影响深远。不过从某种意义上来说，不一定就是坏事，也许是时候让欧盟重新定义自己的性质，进行深入细致的改革，以预防未来面对更多的类似危机。

总之，希腊问题不仅仅是希腊的问题，更是欧盟的问题。

未来怎样，恐怕只能是且行且看。

尘埃落定未有时

Eurozone leaders have reached an agreement after marathon talks over a third bailout for Greece, officials say. EU President Donald Tusk said the agreement was unanimous. He tweeted that a bailout programme was "all ready to go" for Greece, "with serious reforms and financial support". Details of any agreement were not immediately clear. Eurozone leaders have been meeting in Brussels for more than 16 hours （BBC news)


Four-page document of draft proposals put forward by eurozone finance ministers include:

Reforms set out by Greece to be ratified by parliament by Wednesday, 15 July "Ambitious" reforms to pensions and labour markets

International creditors to work on the ground in Athens and have full oversight of draft legislation

Possible transfer of ?50bn in "valuable" Greek assets to external fund for eventual privatisation

Possible talks on "swift negotiations on a time-out from the euro area, with possible debt restructuring" if a bailout is not agreed

Tough choices for Greece

There may only be four pages, but if this draft document is agreed, it would be an extremely difficult pill for Greeks to swallow. For Alexis Tsipras and his left-wing Syriza-led administration, some of the ideas would be little short of humiliation.

Even if Greek MPs pass sweeping reforms by Wednesday, the government would have to allow international creditors full monitoring of its work in Athens and agreement of draft laws in advance. Syriza came to power promising an end to such oversight.

Another possible step is to "amend or compensate" for any laws Syriza pushed through that ran counter to what was agreed with the eurozone in February. That might mean overturning the reinstatement of 4,000 civil servants such as school guards and cleaning ladies. And if Greece could not agree to that it could be offered "time-out" from the eurozone, and the chance of restructuring its debt.

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德国为什么可以强硬或者不得不强硬？


Greece debt crisis puts Germany's Merkel under pressure By Jenny Hill BBC Berlin correspondent

Germans have sympathy for Greeks but not their government, Jenny Hill explains

Of all of its creditors, Greece owes Germany the most - ?68bn (?49bn; $75bn). So German opinion matters.

If and when Greece puts a bailout deal on the negotiating table, German MPs will vote - first on whether they are prepared to let negotiations go ahead and then, later, to approve any deal. A "No" from Germany could railroad any third bailout for Greece. And German politicians are not happy. They have already agreed to two bailout deals - the second time round many voted "Yes" reluctantly to a deal that, as one German newspaper put it, gave them "political tummy ache". Take Wolfgang Bosbach. He is a senior member of Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrat party. "I will not vote in favour of a third bailout package for Greece," he says. "I voted for the first expecting the plan would work, expecting Greece to reform. "Instead the situation got worse and worse and the liabilities for the German taxpayer keep rising." Frustration That is why - as the German media puts it - Angela Merkel is "unter Druck" - under pressure.



我这两天基本趴在BBC还有Twitter 上看,今天是就希腊债务问题欧盟各国协商的最后期限。以下是我粗略总结的事件进程：


昨天欧盟各国FMs就希腊提交的新方案进行了初步讨论。希腊的新方案同意了之前方案里债权方提出的大部分条件，但是条件是再借钱(€53.5 bn)同时要之前的债务利息减免, 加上其他一些借贷要求，预计希腊总体要求从各方再借€86bm。 目前的关键问题是大家对希腊的种种承诺极度不信任，所以FMs昨天一直在讨论各种措施比如国家资产抵押啥的防止希腊以后再食言。

今天下午，各国PMs就该方案进行最终讨论，据欧盟的头说今天无论如何会有个结果。希腊首相说相信今天晚上大家会达成协议，但是德国首相说不一定，还是要取决于该方案对于整个欧盟的利与弊还有希腊是否能够保证兑现承诺。有来自德国的消息称德国在考虑希腊暂时性地退出欧盟的可能性，但是意大利方面说希腊要么是留要么是退，不存在暂时性地退出。

整个说来，就是大家都觉得希腊是个大无赖，在想法防止几年后希腊再故伎重演但是希腊可能不接受这些条件，也许本来就是计划先拿到钱以后再耍赖的。所以今晚各方能否达成一致很难说。如果今天晚上协商失败，就意味着希腊退出欧盟，这对欧元的冲击，对欧洲乃至世界经济的影响难以预测。

欧盟内部，德国和西班牙还有北欧一些国家是强硬派，法国和意大利是温和派。

看着希腊政客的种种表现，我怎么想起国内一个相声还是小品说的，借钱时候是孙子，钱到手后是祖宗。