孙子兵法对占中的启示。

来源: 2014-10-03 22:48:01 [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读:
孙子兵法云:
All war is based on deception: When able to attack, we must pretend to be incapable; When employing forces, we must seem inactive; When we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far; Offer bait to lure him; If he appears humble, make him arrogant; If he is rested, wear him down; If his forces are united, divide them; Take action when it is unexpected.
占中提前,以及在反占中假签名运动后的回避,都是;“When employing forces, we must seem inactive”与 “Take action when it is unexpected”的优秀结合。警方连水炮车都没有预先布置在战略要点,警员还在休假。所以,占中力量头两天是占据上风。
之后,占中方错误连出。分散力量以扩大效果。但是,旺角是鱼龙混杂之地,并不是争取民主的战略根据地。住在旺角的居民没有多少人是同情对抗政府的,为两斗米生计就会对占领人士开火。分散也帮政府实现了“If his forces are united, divide them”。
北京在国庆假日得到冷静待变的机会,并实行了“If he appears humble, make him arrogant; If he is rested, wear him down。”让一帮年轻的学生大放厥词,什么最后通牒都出来了。连日来没有成果。天气,加上旺角的连续肢体碰撞,占中方已经疲态显漏。
占中方现时应该集中力量。把旺角的兵力撤回中环,寻找要害地点来一个突击。
关于要害地点,首选交通方便,靠近支持者的地盘,或离对占中有敌意的人远些的地方。