怎样解读肠癌生存率

来源: fuz 2019-01-25 13:37:58 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (9832 bytes)
本文内容已被 [ fuz ] 在 2019-01-25 13:50:43 编辑过。如有问题,请报告版主或论坛管理删除.

 

看到楼下某贴中提到:“当一个37岁,肠癌4期的病人问她的肿瘤医生关于化疗时,医生告诉她:化疗后的存活率是67%。。 接着这位病人又问了非常关键的问题:如果不做化疗,存活率是多少呢?医生告诉她,57%!”

对此感到十分惊喜,啥时候肿瘤治疗又有了新突破,那俺可有机会多活几年了。赶紧查,结果不给力。

下面是美国癌协网站报道,这个协会可是准专业水平的,不是民科哟。

请注意那个相对生存率(Relative survival rates)对老年患者尤为重要。

全文请见 https://www.cancer.org/cancer/colon-rectal-cancer/detection-diagnosis-staging/survival-rates.html 

摘要

What is a 5-year survival rate?

Statistics on the outlook for a certain type and stage of cancer are often given as 5-year survival rates, but many people live longer – often much longer – than 5 years. The 5-year survival rate is the percentage of people who live at least 5 years after being diagnosed with cancer. For example, a 5-year survival rate of 90% means that an estimated 90 out of 100 people who have that cancer are still alive 5 years after being diagnosed. Keep in mind, however, that many of these people live much longer than 5 years after diagnosis.

Relative survival rates are a more accurate way to estimate the effect of cancer on survival. These rates compare people with colorectal cancer to people in the overall population. For example, if the 5-year relative survival rate for a specific type and stage of cancer is 90%, it means that people who have that cancer are, on average, about 90% as likely as people who don’t have that cancer to live for at least 5 years after being diagnosed.

……………、

Colon cancer survival rates, by stage

The numbers below come from the National Cancer Institute’s SEER database, looking at people diagnosed with colon cancer between 2004 and 2010.

  • The 5-year relative survival rate for people with stage I colon cancer is about 92%.
  • For people with stage IIA colon cancer, the 5-year relative survival rate is about 87%. For stage IIB cancer, the survival rate is about 65%.
  • The 5-year relative survival rate for stage IIIA colon cancers is about 90%. For stage IIIB cancers the survival rate is about 72%, and for stage IIIC cancers the survival rate is about 53%.
  • Colon cancers that have spread to other parts of the body are often harder to treat and tend to have a poorer outlook. Metastatic, or stage IV colon cancers, have a 5-year relative survival rate of about 12%. Still, there are often many treatment options available for people with this stage of cancer.

Rectal cancer survival rates, by stage

The numbers below come from the National Cancer Institute’s SEER database, looking at people diagnosed with rectal cancer between 2004 and 2010.

  • The 5-year relative survival rate for people with stage I rectal cancer is about 88%.
  • For people with stage IIA rectal cancer, the 5-year relative survival rate is about 81%. For stage IIB cancer, the survival rate is about 50%.
  • The 5-year relative survival rate for stage IIIA rectal cancers is about 83%. For stage IIIB cancers the survival rate is about 72%, and for stage IIIC cancers the survival rate is about 58%.
  • Rectal cancers that have spread to other parts of the body are often harder to treat and tend to have a poorer outlook. Metastatic, or stage IV rectal cancers, have a 5-year relative survival rate of about 13%. Still, there are often many treatment options available for people with this stage of cancer.

所有跟帖: 

这个女的在和她的医生对话时可能被认为是3期,但实际上她已是4期了。。 -jw2009- 给 jw2009 发送悄悄话 jw2009 的博客首页 (101 bytes) () 01/25/2019 postreply 15:00:15

感谢健坛有你这个夫子,你的认真治学精神可敬。学习了。 -锅沿- 给 锅沿 发送悄悄话 (638 bytes) () 01/25/2019 postreply 15:06:43

fuz先生新年好。 -OceanSound- 给 OceanSound 发送悄悄话 OceanSound 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/25/2019 postreply 16:27:09

大家好 -fuz- 给 fuz 发送悄悄话 fuz 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/25/2019 postreply 20:31:45

这位克先生不是夫子介绍的那位吗?我点了个赞 -吃与活- 给 吃与活 发送悄悄话 吃与活 的博客首页 (454 bytes) () 01/25/2019 postreply 18:05:58

我查了一下,5年跟10年的生存率基本一样,是不是过了5年就等于痊愈了? -秋问- 给 秋问 发送悄悄话 秋问 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/26/2019 postreply 03:38:06

有十年生存率的数据?五年以后再次出现癌症复发和转移的风险比较低,可以认为是治愈了。 -方家胡同- 给 方家胡同 发送悄悄话 方家胡同 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 01/26/2019 postreply 05:58:39

概率只对群体有意义 -山乡不仕- 给 山乡不仕 发送悄悄话 山乡不仕 的博客首页 (144 bytes) () 01/26/2019 postreply 06:26:06

可以打破统计概率 -金宝猪- 给 金宝猪 发送悄悄话 (690 bytes) () 02/22/2019 postreply 17:19:23

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