对长期投资的一些思考 - 十二
因为加国的RY和BNS银行在最近一周都增加了红利，所以我的养老金帐户的红利收入又增加了。我基本上也是按照DGI的投资思想和策略来安排自己的养老金投资。从红利现金收入的角度，养老金帐户的增长基本上是一条没有任何波动的上升曲线。即使是在没有红利增长的期间，由于红利的复利再投入，账户的现金收益也依然是一条不变的上升曲线，在加国的投资市场，这条上升曲线在过去的50，40，30，20，10，5，1年没有任何的改变。
在之前的贴子中提到的投资者B的养老金帐户，也同样的存在着这样的一条上升曲线，在过去的二十年里，美国市场有二次大的市场波动，但是这二次波动对这条上升曲线的影响是微乎其微， 事实上，大的市场波动反而加速了B的曲线的上升高度和速度。
我写这些帖子呢，是希望给一些不了解股市投资的人一些提示，看看股市投资者是如何理解股市和参与股市投资的。至于你有没有能力理解，愿不愿意去学习股市投资，这完全是个人的选择。老巴说过，价值投资的基本原则在70年前就已经公布于众了，但是即使已经过去了那么多年，也只有少数人愿意接受。
老巴：说起来也奇怪，人们对于“以40sen购买价值$1的资产”这个概念，不是一点就通，就是完全拒绝。如果一个人一开始就不接受这个概念，即使你跟谈论好几年，并拿出投资记录给他看，他的想法还是不会改变的。他们就是没有办法接受。像Rick Guerin的例子，他没有受过任何商学院的教育，却能够马上明白这个概念，并在5分钟内就开始运用它了。我从来没有看过有一个人是经过十年时间才慢慢转变成价值型投资者的。它与个人的IQ或教育背景没有关系。它要不然就是马上被领悟，不然就是永远都不明白。
对于股市投资的学习不要强求，因为对一些人，确实是一辈子都不可能学会学好的，这与智商无关，这是一种与生俱来的天性。
在股市中，股票价格的波动总是最被关注和谈论的。
“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”- Warren Buffett
如果TD银行的股票价格明天下跌50%， 我的投资帐户就会有很大的帐面波动， 按照目前的价格，也可以认为我损失了50%，参照最近的季报，TD的Earning Yield会是20%，去除红利，TD的剩余利润可以回购12%的股票，这样在5-6年的时间内，我将是TD唯一的股东，可以独自拥有500亿市值的TD（目前是108B市值），应该足以成为加国首富，所以我是非常希望我持有的TD股票能够大跌的， 然后能一直待在那个低价位。当然，这里的价格波动是市场引起的， 而不是公司的经营引起的。
Investment is most intelligent when it is most businesslike. - Benjamin Graham
“If you’re right about the business, you’ll make a lot of money.” - Warren Buffett
经常有人会用日本过去二十年的经济停滞来怀疑美加的市场未来，这里我们可以听听老巴的意见。
Warren Buffett 1998 Talk at University of Florida
In response to a question about Japan, Buffett mentions how most Japanese businesses produce low returns on equity, and how time works against you when you own low return businesses:
“Japanese companies earn very low returns on equity. They have a bunch of businesses that earn 4%, 5%, or 6% returns on equity. It’s very hard to earn a lot as an investor when the business you’re in doesn’t earn very much money.”
老巴二十年前就说过投资日本不太容易。（即使是这样，也有日本人在日本市场投资成功的。）
美加二国有比较成熟的市场体系，目前和今后比较长的时期会依然保持这一优势。
TD 2006 - 2015 ROE
RY 2006 - 2015 ROE
WFC 2006 - 2015 ROE
Over the long term, it's hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you're not going to make much different than a 6% return—even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you'll end up with a fine result. - Charlie Munger
Warren Buffett 1998 Talk at University of Florida
“We never buy a stock with a price target in mind. We never buy something at 30 and say ‘if it goes to 40 we’ll sell it.’… That’s just not the right way to look at a business.”
Buffett obviously does buy and sell stocks—and did much more of that in his early years—but the concept is to focus on stocks not as trading vehicles with price targets, but as businesses that produce cash flow for owners. Mr. Market will always be there offering prices that can be taken advantage of, but the mindset should be firmly focused on the fundamentals of the business and its future earning power, not on where the stock will go or when it will get there.
