为什么华尔街的职业分析师并不比个人投资者有任何优势

来源: 股市小书生 2016-07-09 17:36:11 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (4168 bytes)
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Once, at a lecture, he was asked if Wall Street professionals were better at forecasting what would happen to market, and if not, then why, and here's what he said:

"Well, we’ve been following that same question for a generation or more, and I must say frankly that our studies indicate that you have your choice between tossing coins and taking the consensus of expert opinion and the result is just about the same in each case.

Everybody in Wall St. is so smart that their brilliance offsets each other. And that whatever they know is already reflected in the level of stock prices for the much, and consequently what happens in the future represents what they don’t know." - Benjamin Graham

 

It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.

That is a very simple concept. And to me it's obviously right based on experience not only from the pari-mutuel system, but everywhere else. And yet, in investment management, practically nobody operates that way. We operate that way I'm talking about Buffett and Munger. And we're not alone in the world. But a huge majority of people have some other crazy construct in their heads And instead of waiting for a near cinch and loading up, they apparently ascribe to the theory that if they work a little harder or hire more business school students, they'll come to know everything about everything all the time. To me, that's totally insane. The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights. - 芒格

 

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闻道有先后,术业有专攻, -刀削面同學- 给 刀削面同學 发送悄悄话 刀削面同學 的博客首页 (196 bytes) () 07/09/2016 postreply 17:38:50

90%大公司CEO都不知道自己在干吗,分析师有个P 用 -Goldman2015- 给 Goldman2015 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 07/09/2016 postreply 18:08:17

强,顶,大实话。 -大文嚎- 给 大文嚎 发送悄悄话 大文嚎 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 07/09/2016 postreply 18:25:26

Agree, sift the world for misprice, that's where hard work shoul -Labourse- 给 Labourse 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 07/09/2016 postreply 19:18:43

Should be; analysists focus too much on a few stocks -Labourse- 给 Labourse 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 07/09/2016 postreply 19:20:01

zt: 微博投资感悟(十六) -股市小书生- 给 股市小书生 发送悄悄话 股市小书生 的博客首页 (72990 bytes) () 08/25/2016 postreply 06:54:23

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