[原创] 《每周一股》3/3，ANF，断崖跳水是凶兆

 

第一次在大千发帖，欢迎朋友们讨论（不知道怎么上图）

主要从FA/TA两方面着手，选择做多/做空个股，Hold时间一般一个月以上

 

ANF是一家卖服装的retailer，美国有946家店，海外99家。pe 35.31，peg 1.97，在同行业中明显偏高，fpe 不高，才12.75，这也是前三个月股价不断上涨的原因。但刚刚发表的ER，引起了投资者的忧虑，按年收入增加了11%, 稍低于预期，由于cost控制不错，盈利超了预期，eps按年增加了97%，beat了预期。但是，

In the firm's fourth quarter, we saw ongoing weakness in both its domestic and international businesses. Total comparable sales fell 1% during the quarter, as a 17% increase in comparable direct-to-consumer sales failed to completely offset a 4% decline in same-store sales. Comparable sales in the US were flat, revealing some stabilization from previous trends (but the store base is now smaller). US same-store sales declined 1%, but direct-to-consumer sales advanced 5%.

The international segment performed similarly, with comparable sales decreasing 3%. International same-store sales fell 14%, which was partially offset by 52% direct-to-consumer growth. We don't believe the brand has quite recovered from the depths of the financial crisis, and it seems--based on both international results and results at Abercrombie tourist locations--that the brand has lost some of its international appeal.

这些下降的数据说明了ANF的高成长性不可能继续下去，更关键的是

Looking ahead, the firm is anticipating full-year earnings of $3.35-$3.45 per share, an increase of 4%-7%. Abercrombie will close 40-50 stores in the US (as leases expire) but open 20 Hollister locations internationally and 2 Abercrombie flagship stores in Seoul and Shanghai. We don't see much growth ahead, though free cash flow could remain strong as the company plans to allocate just $200 million on capital expenditures in 2013.

一般来说，关店容易开店难，走上升趋势的零售行业，基本上是开一家赚一家，不会关店的，像HD，KORS。而走下坡趋势的零售行业，如zellers，才会不断关店

处于竞争激烈的传统零售行业，预计增长率也只有 an increase of 4%-7%，如何对得起35的高pe值？再加上还要关掉40～50家店，收入会继续下降。近期三四月，是零售的传统淡季。行业老大wmt在二月份的警告， 对整个零售业的近期都不是一个好的预兆。

我已经有了put spread，现在轻微水下，我看低目标价位 40