reply to murmur

 

I am not bashing you. I am trying to be constructive to DQ

I believe you have a very good system, and I am trying to rationally analyze your system. 

Does your return include tax? Your system doesn't require frequent trades, however there is still buy and sell and these will invite the tax man to come knocking. This is a big negative for any active strategy(therefore a huge advantage to passive ETF strategy). Also your comparison with S&P 500 didn't include dividend. If you read Berkshire's annual report, when Buffett compares to S&P 500, he includes dividend. You already have a good strategy, maybe you can improve it and do even better. 

Yes, It is very hard to stay calm seeing one's portfolio lost 50%, I agree. In fact, the ability to deal with lost is a problem all investors have to face, even legends like Lou Simpson, John Maynard Keynes, Charlie Munger, William Ruane have consecutive years of underperformance.