详尽的资料，扎实的分析。纽约时报：希拉里获胜的几率为90%

来源: 做客纽约 于 2016-10-31 05:31:51 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读： 次 (632816 bytes)
本文内容已被 [ 做客纽约 ] 在 2016-10-31 05:32:52 编辑过。如有问题，请报告版主或论坛管理删除.

原文链接：

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

 

 

Who Will Be President?

By JOSH KATZ

Hillary Clinton has a90% chance to win.
Last updated Monday, October 31 at 8:09 AM ET

CHANCE OF WINNING

90%

Hillary Clinton

10%

Donald J. Trump

The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 32-yard field goal.

Note that our model is based on polls, which take days to conduct. It won’t reflect any changes in the race until the polls do.

From now until Election Day, we’ll update our estimates with each new poll, as well as collect the ratings of other news organizations. You can chart different paths to victory below. Here’s how our estimates have changed over time:

JuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovember0%20%40%60%80%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%Trump10%Clinton90%October 31

Where the Race Has Shifted

To understand what is driving the national trend, it’s worth taking a look at the states where the winning probabilities have changed most over the last two weeks:

336
McMullin's chances
6682
Clinton's chances
4053
Trump's chances
2336
Clinton's chances
4850
Clinton's chances
1929
Trump's chances
311
Clinton's chances
614
Clinton's chances
310
Clinton's chances
9295
Trump's chances
713
Trump's chances
2832
Clinton's chances
2425
Trump's chances
9094
Clinton's chances

The Democrats have a 61% chance of winning the Senate →

State-by-State Estimates

To forecast each party’s chance of winning the presidency, our model calculates vote estimates for each state and the District of Columbia, as well as congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska, which assign electoral votes by district.

In the table below, we have divided the country into groups based on each area’s voting history relative to the nation since 2004. Our forecast in places that tend to vote …

Much more Democratic

D.C.
D +77
Md.
D +30
Hawaii
D +29
Mass.
D +25
Calif.
D +25
Vt.
D +25
N.Y.
D +23
R.I.
D +20
Me.-1*
D +15

Somewhat more Democratic

Del.
D +17
Ill.
D +16
N.J.
D +16
Conn.
D +15
Wash.
D +15
Ore.
D +12
N.M.
D +8
Me.
D +7
Mich.
D +7

Like the country as a whole

Va.
D +9
Minn.
D +8
Pa.
D +6
N.H.
D +6
Wis.
D +6
Colo.
D +5
Nev.
D +3
Fla.
D +2
Iowa
Even
Ohio
Even
Me.-2*
R +1

Somewhat more Republican

N.C.
D +4
Neb.-2*
Even
Ariz.
R +1
Ga.
R +2
Mo.
R +8
Ind.
R +10

Much more Republican

S.C.
R +5
Tex.
R +5
Miss.
R +6
Alaska
R +7
Utah
R +9
Neb.-1*
R +11
Tenn.
R +13
La.
R +13
Mont.
R +13
Kan.
R +13
Neb.
R +14
Ark.
R +15
N.D.
R +16
S.D.
R +16
Ala.
R +18
Ky.
R +20
Idaho
R +21
Okla.
R +23
W.Va.
R +27
Wyo.
R +32
Neb.-3*
R +33
*Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district.
 

How Other Forecasts Compare

The New York Times is one of many news organizations to publish election ratings or forecasts. Some, like FiveThirtyEight or the Princeton Election Consortium, use statistical models, as The Times does; others, like the Cook Political Report, rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts’ opinions. PredictWise uses information from betting markets.

We compile and standardize these ratings every day into one scoreboard for comparison. First, every organization’s estimate for who will win the presidency:

    NYT 538 HuffPost PW PEC DK Cook Roth.1 Sabato    
Win presidency  
90% Dem.
79% Dem.
98% Dem.
87% Dem.
99% Dem.
96% Dem.
Lean Dem.
Lean Dem.
Likely Dem.
Note: The 538 model shown is its default (polls-only) forecast.Qualitative ratings reflect the rating for the state in the middle of each organization’s forecast, weighted by electoral votes.

Second, each organization’s state-by-state ratings. Viewed together, the differences between the models become much clearer.

 
State E.V. NYT 538 HuffPost PW PEC DK Cook Roth.1 Sabato    
D.C. 3
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
 272 electoral votes
From 24 likely Democratic states
Hawaii 4
>99% Dem.
98% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
California 55
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
New York 29
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Vermont 3
>99% Dem.
98% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Rhode Island 4
>99% Dem.
94% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Illinois 20
>99% Dem.
99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Delaware 3
>99% Dem.
93% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Maryland 10
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Maine (CD 1)* 1
>99% Dem.
94% Dem.
>99% Dem.
98% Dem.
>99% Dem.
N.A.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
New Jersey 14
>99% Dem.
98% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Washington 12
>99% Dem.
98% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
97% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Connecticut 7
>99% Dem.
97% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Massachusetts 11
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Oregon 7
99% Dem.
95% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Virginia 13
98% Dem.
91% Dem.
>99% Dem.
99% Dem.
99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
New Mexico 5
96% Dem.
90% Dem.
>99% Dem.
95% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Solid Dem.
Solid Dem.
Likely Dem.
Minnesota 10
95% Dem.
86% Dem.
99% Dem.
89% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
Maine 2
95% Dem.
85% Dem.
>99% Dem.
98% Dem.
>99% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
Michigan 16
94% Dem.
86% Dem.
98% Dem.
94% Dem.
97% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
Pennsylvania 20
94% Dem.
85% Dem.
>99% Dem.
93% Dem.
95% Dem.
99% Dem.
Lean Dem.
Lean Dem.
Likely Dem.
New Hampshire 4
94% Dem.
80% Dem.
99% Dem.
94% Dem.
95% Dem.
>99% Dem.
Lean Dem.
Lean Dem.
Likely Dem.
Wisconsin 10
94% Dem.
84% Dem.
97% Dem.
81% Dem.
95% Dem.
99% Dem.
Lean Dem.
Lean Dem.
Likely Dem.
Colorado 9
87% Dem.
82% Dem.
>99% Dem.
93% Dem.
90% Dem.
99% Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
Likely Dem.
North Carolina 15
82% Dem.
64% Dem.
94% Dem.
75% Dem.
83% Dem.
87% Dem.
Lean Dem.
Lean Dem.
Lean Dem.
 109 electoral votes
From 10 competitive states
Nevada 6
75% Dem.
62% Dem.
87% Dem.
78% Dem.
69% Dem.
80% Dem.
Lean Dem.
Lean Dem.
Lean Dem.
Florida 29
71% Dem.
59% Dem.
96% Dem.
60% Dem.
74% Dem.
91% Dem.
Tossup
Lean Dem.
Lean Dem.
Nebraska (CD 2)* 1
53% Dem.
63% Rep.
50% Dem.
73% Rep.
89% Rep.
N.A.
Tossup
Tossup
Lean Dem.
Iowa 6
50% Rep.
53% Rep.
59% Rep.
67% Rep.
50% Dem.
76% Rep.
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Ohio 18
53% Rep.
53% Rep.
58% Dem.
62% Rep.
90% Rep.
59% Rep.
Tossup
Tossup
Lean Dem.
Utah 6
61% Rep.
74% Rep.
>99% Rep.
68% Rep.
97% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Lean Rep.
Lean Rep.
Tossup
Maine (CD 2)* 1
62% Rep.
52% Dem.
50% Dem.
56% Rep.
98% Dem.
N.A.
Tossup
Tossup
Tossup
Arizona 11
64% Rep.
54% Rep.
72% Rep.
65% Rep.
69% Rep.
61% Rep.
Tossup
Lean Rep.
Lean Dem.
Georgia 16
68% Rep.
74% Rep.
81% Rep.
85% Rep.
63% Rep.
73% Rep.
Lean Rep.
Lean Rep.
Lean Rep.
South Carolina 9
86% Rep.
87% Rep.
96% Rep.
98% Rep.
98% Rep.
99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Likely Rep.
 157 electoral votes
From 22 likely Republican states
Mississippi 6
89% Rep.
95% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Texas 38
90% Rep.
89% Rep.
97% Rep.
98% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Likely Rep.
Solid Rep.
Likely Rep.
Alaska 3
91% Rep.
68% Rep.
97% Rep.
92% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Likely Rep.
Missouri 10
95% Rep.
90% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Likely Rep.
Likely Rep.
Likely Rep.
South Dakota 3
96% Rep.
91% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Indiana 11
98% Rep.
94% Rep.
>99% Rep.
96% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Likely Rep.
Lean Rep.
Likely Rep.
Nebraska (CD 1)* 1
99% Rep.
91% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
N.A.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Louisiana 8
99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Tennessee 11
99% Rep.
98% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Idaho 4
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Likely Rep.
Montana 3
>99% Rep.
93% Rep.
>99% Rep.
93% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Kansas 6
>99% Rep.
94% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Nebraska 2
>99% Rep.
98% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Likely Rep.
Solid Rep.
Arkansas 6
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
North Dakota 3
>99% Rep.
96% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
West Virginia 5
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Alabama 9
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Kentucky 8
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Oklahoma 7
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Nebraska (CD 3)* 1
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
N.A.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Wyoming 3
>99% Rep.
99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
>99% Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
Solid Rep.
1Rothenberg & Gonzales ratings are converted from a nine-category scale to a seven-category scale to make comparisons easier.
*Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Solid
Dem.
Likely
Dem.
Lean
Dem.
Tossup
Lean
Rep.
Likely
Rep.
Solid
Rep.
Get Ready for Another Swing in the Polls, but Not Necessarily a Shift in the Race
By NATE COHN 11:23 AM
Ads That Use Candidates’ Own Words, to Powerful Effect
By LYNN VAVRECK October 28
Will the Next President Face a Recession? Don’t Assume So
By NEIL IRWIN October 27
Fraud Claims in Philadelphia? They Add Up to Zero
By EMILY BADGER October 26
The Problem for Women Is Not Winning. It’s Deciding to Run.
By CLAIRE CAIN MILLER October 25

Which Outcomes Are Most Likely

Some combinations of electoral votes are much more common than others. The chart below shows the estimated likelihood of each outcome.

0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%2.0%2.2%100200300400500Most likely outcome322 electoral votesMost likely outcome322 electoral votes270 electoral votes needed
Electoral votes for Hillary Clinton →

1,024 Paths to the White House

The interactive diagram below illustrates Mr. Trump’s challenging path to the presidency. Here, we let you control the outcome of the nine states that have voted most like the nation since 2004, plus North Carolina, which has emerged in the past decade as a more competitive state. We then assume that Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton win the other states in which they are favored. Above all, this diagram illustrates how important Florida and Pennsylvania are to both candidates.

Select a winner in the states below to see either candidate's paths to victory.

71% Dem.
Fla.
94% Dem.
Pa.
53% Rep.
Ohio
82% Dem.
N.C.
98% Dem.
Va.
94% Dem.
Wis.
87% Dem.
Colo.
50% Rep.
Iowa
75% Dem.
Nev.
94% Dem.
N.H.
Clinton has 709 ways to win
69% of paths
 
15 ties
1% of paths
 
Trump has 300 ways to win
29% of paths
 
DRFloridaDRPennsylvaniaDROhioDRNorth CarolinaDRVirginiaDRWisconsinDRColoradoDRIowaDRNevadaDRNew HampshireIf Clinton wins Florida…If Trump wins Florida…With 10 states undecided:With these selections,
 

所有跟帖： 

• 哈哈 -独自去偷欢- ♂ 给 独自去偷欢 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/31/2016 postreply 05:34:46

• 做客纽约的人会知道NY Times的倾向性吗？ -foxy2015- ♂ 给 foxy2015 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/31/2016 postreply 05:43:13

• 一切让11月8日去证明吧 -做客纽约- ♂ 给 做客纽约 发送悄悄话 做客纽约 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/31/2016 postreply 06:10:52

• 我以前每次都是相信中文网上专家的说法，每次都押不对。 -千里一盏灯- ♂ 给 千里一盏灯 发送悄悄话 千里一盏灯 的博客首页 (74 bytes) () 10/31/2016 postreply 05:50:59

• Do not trust any poll, vote your own voice -xiuxiu_200- ♀ 给 xiuxiu_200 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/31/2016 postreply 05:53:32

• 秋后的蚂蚱，蹦跶不了几天 -Staub- ♂ 给 Staub 发送悄悄话 Staub 的博客首页 (22 bytes) () 10/31/2016 postreply 06:11:41

• 相对穷的州和偏远地区都是红的，发达沿海地区都是蓝的。 -John_sh- ♂ 给 John_sh 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/31/2016 postreply 06:13:22

• 穷的州? california is approaching bankrupcy, Do you mean CA will b -xiuxiu_200- ♀ 给 xiuxiu_200 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/31/2016 postreply 06:16:04

• Do you mean CA will be red? -xiuxiu_200- ♀ 给 xiuxiu_200 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/31/2016 postreply 06:16:36

• It only happened in your dream. -Norcalfan0- ♂ 给 Norcalfan0 发送悄悄话 Norcalfan0 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 10/31/2016 postreply 06:33:11

• 发达沿海地区？以为这是中国呢。去看看“沿海发达地区”加州吧，又破又旧，公立学校那个穷啊，还到处graffiti和crime！再去 -foxy2015- ♂ 给 foxy2015 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 10/31/2016 postreply 06:28:05

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