http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/actuarial-review-of-recent-polls-shows-trump-win-and-possible-landslide/
今年Primary Republicans投票比以前多了50% 达到31 million. Democrats投票比以前少了 7 million, 只有30 million. 很多跨党投票的, 从Democrats转到Republicans的有据可查的都有过 million. 同样大部分的Independent 支持老川. 从以上大的方面分析, 老川应该是大幅度领先.
我加一句: 这也符合大部分online poll的结果. 所以只要防止老希大规模作弊, 老川肯定赢!
This year Republicans crushed their previous record in the primaries for number of votes by 150%. Their old record was 20 million and this year 31 million voted in the primaries.
The Democrats on the other hand had 7 million votes less than their record year in 2008 with 30 million this year compared to 37 million in 2008.
Also, the primaries were heavily contested on both sides resulting in factions from each party vowing not to vote for the party candidate. The impact of these two groups is difficult to judge. The percentage of these voters that change parties is probably limited. If anything, the Sanders people will probably be more likely to vote for Trump since he is an outsider and many of them will never vote for Crooked Hillary.
Finally, it is difficult to determine what the independent voters will do but many independent voters partook in the primaries to vote for Trump. Therefore it is more likely that Independent voters vote for Trump as well.
If more Democratic voters vote for Trump than Republicans vote for Hillary and more Independents vote for Trump than Hillary, both scenarios which are highly likely, then the results of the general election will likely be a Trump landslide.
Let’s face it NOBODY likes Hillary and NOBODY trusts Hillary.
Nobody trusted Hillary before WikiLeaks. Trump is filling arenas around the country but Hillary can barely fill half a high school gymnasium. Her VP candidate Tim Kaine can’t even get 50 people at an event.
