自第二次世界大战以来，大多数英国人毫无疑问地接受了这样一个前提：英国应继续保持世界一流强国的地位，另一方面，又坚持生活水平应继续提高，社会服务应免受税收保护，以资助外交政策承诺。问题不在于英国能否继续作为一个大国思考和行事，而在于它是否有能力这样做。– Since the Second World War most Britons have unquestioningly accepted the premise that Britain should continue to rank as a first order world Power while, on the other, insisting that living standards should continue rising and social services be protected from taxes to finance foreign policy commitments. The question is not whether Britain can continue to think and behave as a Great Power, but whether it can afford to. – FS 诺斯奇，1970 年。F. S. Northedge, 1970.
好消息是不会有战争。The good news is that there will be no war.
相当悲伤的消息是美国买不起。The rather sad news is that America can’t afford one.
20 世纪 80 年代的新保守主义政策 — — 缩小政府规模并将一切私有化 — — 使美国成为二线国家，在经济、工业、科学甚至军事上缺乏竞争力，正如这份 STEM 排名所表明的那样：1980s neoconservative policies – downsize government and privatize everything – have left the US a second-tier power, uncompetitive economically, industrially, scientifically and even militarily, as this STEM ranking suggests:
为什么我们会失败Why we fail
美国在乌克兰失败至少有七个原因。科雷利·巴尼特说：“一个民族国家的力量决不仅仅在于其武装力量，还在于其经济和技术资源；执行外交政策时的灵活性、远见和决心；其社会和政治组织的效率。它主要由国家本身组成：人民；他们的技能、精力、野心、纪律、主动性；他们的信仰、神话和幻想。此外，它还包括所有这些因素相互关联的方式。此外，国家权力不仅要考虑其本身的绝对范围，还要考虑国家的对外或帝国义务；必须相对于其他国家的力量来考虑”。让我们来分解一下。There are at least seven reasons why the US failed in Ukraine. Says Correlli Barnett, “The power of a nation-state by no means consists only in its armed forces, but also in its economic and technological resources; in the dexterity, foresight and resolution with which its foreign policy is conducted; in the efficiency of its social and political organization. It consists most of all in the nation itself: the people; their skills, energy, ambition, discipline, initiative; their beliefs, myths and illusions. And it consists, further, in the way all these factors are related to one another. Moreover, national power has to be considered not only in itself, in its absolute extent, but relative to the state’s foreign or imperial obligations; it has to be considered relative to the power of other states”. Let’s break that down.
其他国家的力量The Power of Other States
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武装部队Armed forces。没有哪个严肃的军事学者会想象美国陆军可以在欧洲挑战俄罗斯陆军，也可以在亚洲挑战中国人民解放军——继 1951 年在朝鲜遭受羞辱之后。明年，中国海军将拥有 400 艘配备高超音速导弹的新战舰——这是美国海军的 293 艘旧战舰船既不能拥有，也不能防御。. No serious military scholar imagines the US Army could challenge the Russian Army in Europe, nor the PLA in Asia – after being humiliated in Korea in 1951. Next year the PLAN will have 400 new warships armed with hypersonic missiles – which the US Navy’s 293 older boats neither possess nor can defend against.
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经济技术资源Economic and technological resources。俄罗斯经济位居世界第四，军事生产力比美国高800%，军事技术领先一代，指挥能力世界第一。中国的. Russia’s economy is the world’s fourth largest, its military sector is 800% more productive than America’s, its military technology is a generation ahead, and its generalship is the world’s best. China’s 生产性productive经济规模比美国大300%，并且在几乎所有科学技术方面都领先于美国。 economy is 300% bigger and leads the US in almost all sciences and technologies.
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其外交政策实施的灵活性、远见和决心The dexterity, foresight and resolution with which its foreign policy is conducted。世界上百分之九十的人做生意并同情俄罗斯或中国，他们的领导人无论走到哪里都是摇滚明星。世界上百分之十的人支持美国，而美国的领导人却受到怜悯，甚至当面侮辱。. Ninety percent of the world’s people do business and sympathize with Russia or China, and their leaders are rock stars wherever they go. Ten percent of the world’s people support America, whose leader is pitied, even insulted to his face.
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其社会和政治组织的效率The efficiency of its social and political organization。80%的俄罗斯人支持他们政府的政策，96%的中国人支持他们的政府政策。只有 34% 的美国人信任他们的政府或支持其政策。. 80% of Russians support their government’s policies and 96% of Chinese support theirs. Barely 34% of Americans trust their government or support its policies.
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人们的技能、能量、野心、纪律、主动性、信仰、神话和幻想Skills, energy, ambition, discipline, initiative, beliefs, myths and illusions of the people。中国和俄罗斯的复苏反映了两国人民的韧性、技能、活力、雄心、纪律、主动性和集体自信。美国尚未从全球金融危机中恢复过来，芯片工厂的人员配备也很困难，而且自 1974 年以来就没有给工人. China’s and Russia’s recoveries reflect their people’s resilience, skills, energy, ambition, discipline, initiative and collective self-belief. The US has yet to recover from the GFC, struggles to staff a chip fab, and hasn’t given its workers a 加薪raise。 since 1974.
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外国或帝国的义务Foreign or imperial obligations。继阿富汗. Ukraine, on the heels of the Afghanistan 纠纷imbroglio之后，乌克兰表明美国没有能力履行对其盟友的义务。它退出伊朗核协议表明它没有能力达成协议。, suggests that the US is incapable of sustaining its obligations towards its allies. Its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear pact suggests that it is incapable of making agreements.
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国家实力相对于其他国家的实力National power relative to the power of other states。如果美国想在军事上与俄罗斯. If America wants to match Russia 或or中国相抗衡，华盛顿就必须 China militarily, Washington must 在 2034 年之前将实际国防开支增加一倍double real defense spending，才能与其中任何一个而不是两者在 2023 年的能力相匹配。 through 2034 just to match the 2023 capabilities of either, not both, of them.
美国在国外过度扩张，在国内过度膨胀，其国家能力几乎在各个方面都在恶化——从治理到司法、军事到婴儿死亡率——而它却忽视了自身的衰落。America is overextended abroad, overinflated at home and its State competence is deteriorating in almost every way – from governance to justice to military to infant mortality – while it ignores its decline.
下一站：失败状态？Next Stop: Failed State?
失败国家的机构是软弱且有缺陷的。通常，行政部门几乎无法发挥作用，而立法机关、司法机关、官僚机构和武装部队却失去了能力和专业独立性。一个失败的国家会遭受基础设施崩溃、公用事业供应、教育和卫生设施摇摇欲坠以及婴儿死亡率和识字率等人类发展指标恶化的困扰。失败的国家创造了腐败猖獗和负增长率的环境，诚实的经济活动无法蓬勃发展。A failed state’s institutions are feeble and flawed. Often, the executive barely functions while the legislature, judiciary, bureaucracy, and armed forces have lost their capacity and professional independence. A failed state suffers from crumbling infrastructure, faltering utility supplies, educational and health facilities, and deteriorating human-development indicators like infant mortality and literacy. Failed states create an environment of flourishing corruption and negative growth rates, where honest economic activity cannot flourish.大英百科全书 Encyclopedia Britannica。.
甚至在新冠疫情爆发之前，美国的饥饿儿童、吸毒成瘾者、自杀和处决者、文盲、被监禁者、穷人、无家可归者就比中国还要多。后新冠时代的美国，因派系斗争和不信任而四分五裂，因疾病而衰弱，而且死亡率逐年下降，还能与数十项此类举措竞争多久？Even before Covid, there were more hungry children, drug addicts, suicides and executions, illiterate, incarcerated, poor, homeless people in America than in China. How long can post-Covid America, riven by factionalism and distrust, weakened by disease, and dying younger each year, compete with dozens of initiatives like this?
中国占领欧亚大陆广阔的中间空间的唯一真正障碍是美国对阿富汗的占领The only real barrier to China’s bid to capture Eurasia’s vast Middle Space was the US occupation of Afghanistan。土库曼斯坦-阿富汗-巴基斯坦-印度管道（TAPI）于 2018 年宣布，将中亚天然气田连接到南亚，但通过阿富汗关键地区的进展因战争而放缓。此后，该计划又重新启动，为中国投资打开了道路，从而完成了对中亚的占领。. The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, TAPI, joining Central Asia’s gas fields to South Asia, was announced in 2018 but progress through the critical Afghan sector was slowed by the war. Since then, the scheme has been revived, opening the way for Chinese investment that could complete its capture of Central Asia. 阿尔弗雷德·麦考伊Alfred McCoy
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