郑永年：中国必须避免对美误判
2020年08月05日 11:43 参考消息
https://news.sina.com.cn/o/2020-08-05/doc-iivhuipn6938040.shtml
参考消息网8月5日报道
新加坡《联合早报》8月4日刊登新加坡国立大学东亚研究所教授郑永年题为《中国必须避免对美误判》的文章称，中国看待美国不能跟随美国国内观点，对美国的估计必须实事求是，作理性分析，具有足够的现实主义。文章内容摘编如下：
在美国内部，美国衰落的声音不绝。美国也不乏有人开始把特朗普治下的美国视为“失败国家”。在外部，特朗普的美国也不被看好。在这次新冠病毒危机中，没有一个国家向美国求援，这是美国进入世界体系100多年以来的首次。
中国社会对特朗普治下的美国也表现出复杂的情绪。很多人担心特朗普的非理性和不可预测性，尤其是特朗普眼下面临不利选情的情况下会如何行为。是否会向外转移矛盾，而把“中国牌”打到极致？是否继续升级中美之间早已经展开的冷战？是否在南海和台湾等中国核心利益上挑战中国，甚至发动战争？
如果人们跟随美国国内的一些观点，也以为美国衰败了，或者以为美国会解体，而可以在国际上“取代”美国，就会犯极大的战略错误。其他国家可以错误地理解美国，中国则不可以。因为美国已经把中国界定为其头号“敌人”，中国对美国的估计必须实事求是，具有足够的现实主义。
理性分析美国内部矛盾
对美国所发生的一切，必须作理性分析。
外交是内政的延续。今天美国的外交政策是其内政的反映。在内部，今天的美国面临着几大矛盾。
第一，种族矛盾，主要表现为BLM（“黑人的命也重要”）运动。其他种族的运动也存在，但被黑人运动所淹没；
第二，阶级矛盾，主要表现为巨大的收入分配和财富差异问题。上世纪80年代以来，在新自由主义经济学主导下，美国二战后成长起来的、也是美国引以为傲的中产阶层急剧缩小，中产阶级社会演变成为“富豪社会”；
第三，意识形态极端化，主要表现为保守主义和自由主义之间的矛盾尖锐化，演变成激进保守主义和激进自由主义。两者之间的交集越来越少，越来越没有妥协性；
第四，政治利益矛盾，表现为民主党人与共和党人之间，两党之间的矛盾，光用意识形态来解释很难说清楚，政治人物自私自利走向极端，他（她）们之间的对立和仇视已经公开化，不可调和。
所有这些矛盾导致了美国治理制度问题，或者如一些人所说的治理失败。而治理失败的关键在于政党制度的失效。西方自近代以来，政党是组织国家政治生活的最主要手段。尤其在美国，几乎所有问题，都要通过政党政治而转化成为国家政策来最终得到解决。
美对华政策转为敌对
所有这些内部问题也以不同途径反映到国际层面，就出现了很多国际和外交层面的问题，主要表现为：
第一，调整盟友关系。特朗普上台后，美国急速地减少对盟友的承诺，要不就要求盟友承担维持同盟关系的更多费用，要不就减少对盟友各方面的援助和支持；
第二，从国际组织“退群”。奥巴马总统开始计划美国如何有序地从一些对美国影响减小的国际事务中撤出来，而转向对美国来说更为重要的一些领域。但这一战略在特朗普上台后，演变为全面“退群”；
第三，美国内部矛盾的激化，导致特朗普民粹主义的崛起，而内部民粹主义的外部表现便是民族主义；在政策层面表现为贸易保护主义、经济民族主义和反移民等。可以预计，如果美国解决不了国内的治理问题，继续弱化，美国民族主义会趋于高涨；
第四，软力量的衰退。特朗普上台后，即使美国的很多盟友也对美国胆战心惊，小心翼翼地应对美国，既不想得罪特朗普，也不想盲目跟随美国；
第五，对华政策演变成为敌对政策。在外部，美国已经正式地把中国界定为其头号对手，俄罗斯次之。美国现在所进行的外交都是聚焦中国，试图形成最广泛的“统一战线”来对付中国。但更重要的是，对华政策也成为美国内政的一个重要部分，两党竞争着谁对中国更狠。这里认同政治扮演着关键作用。认同政治对美国的对华政策具有很长远的影响，因为它深刻影响着美国社会（民众）对中国的认知。
美国目前面临着治理危机
美国内部矛盾的激发和对华实行全面打压政策，这两者混合在一起，足以促成一部分人对美国的误判。这种误判如果影响到中国的外交政策，可以预见，就会很难避免陷入美国所设定的对华政策议程。因此，要制定有效的对美政策，人们需要对美国的现状，在基本事实的基础上，做理性分析。至少如下几点是要有认知的。
第一，美国现在面临的是由政治危机所引发的治理危机，并非是总体政治制度危机。今天的BLM运动在清算美国的历史，包括制宪人物在内的政治家的雕像被推倒。不过，制宪人的雕像可以倒，但宪法不会倒；宪法可以修正，但不会废弃；
第二，美国的制度空间足够大，或者“制度笼子”足够大，来容纳社会运动。今天的黑人运动，远远比不上上世纪60年代至70年代的黑人民权运动。当时除了民权运动，还有庞大的反越战运动。美国的处理方法就是让“笼子”更大一些，给各社会群体更多的法律层面的权利。今天的美国认同政治盛行，社会运动碎片化，很难聚集起来对总体政治制度构成有效冲击；
第三，随着BLM运动的激进化，保守主义也在崛起。自由和保守力量的较量不可避免，直到双方移动到一种新的均衡。很少有人会认为今天这样的抗争会演变成为内战；
第四，经济与政治的分离。资本追求独立自主，以免受政治权力和社会的冲击。因此，在西方，所有其他问题不会对经济产生致命性的影响。政治可以干预、规制和修正经济，但主导不了经济规律。这也为此次新冠疫情危机所证实。疫情对美国社会各个方面和日常经济生活造成了巨大的冲击，但对美国的基本经济体系并无构成巨大压力；
第五，并没有显著迹象表明美国的硬实力在衰落。再者，硬力量的存在和上升，反过来会助力美国在危机之后恢复软力量。
中美不是谁取代谁的问题
如果能够照顾到这些基本事实，也不难得出如下结论。
第一，美国的衰落是相对的，就是与其他国家的发展相比较而言的衰落。如果与美国自己的过去相比较，美国仍然在发展，只是较慢发展；
第二，大国的衰落是一个很长的历史过程。苏联解体之后，俄罗斯的军事到今天为止仍然是最强大的之一。在这个漫长过程中，美国仍有复兴机会；
第三，美国没有全面衰落，而是部分衰落。在经济、军事、科学技术、创新等领域，仍然没有任何国家可以和美国比拟；
第四，美国内部的“衰落论”主要是美国人的深刻危机感所致。美国是一个危机感驱动的社会。和其他国家的国民比较，美国人很少有忍耐性。加上热衷于报道负面新闻的媒体的大肆渲染，美国社会往往具有深刻的危机感，而政治人物（因为选票的缘故）不得不回应。不难理解，“西方衰落”和“美国衰落”的声音，在西方和美国从来就没有间断过。
就中美关系来说，结论也是清晰的。
第一，两国紧张关系是结构决定的，即中国已经崛起到被美国视为真实威胁的程度。
第二，美国可以围堵中国，围堵也可以对中国产生影响，但遏制不了中国的继续崛起。
第三，中美两国不是谁取代谁的问题，美国遏制不了中国，中国也取代不了美国。
第四，中美两国的问题是共存问题。丢掉一切不切实际的幻想，学会和美国共存，应当是人们思维的起点。
责任编辑：张迪
Zheng Yongnian：China must avoid misjudgments against the United States
2020年08月05日 11:43 参考消息
https://news.sina.com.cn/o/2020-08-05/doc-iivhuipn6938040.shtml
Cankao Xiaoxi(參考消息) 5 August, 2020
An article by Prof. Zheng Yongnian in National University of Singapore, East Asian Institute is published in Singapore《Lianhe Zaobao》, on 4 August, 2020, which is titled《China must avoid misjudgments against the United States》. Zheng claims that China's view of the United States cannot follow the domestic view in the United States, and its estimation of the United States must be realistic, based on rational analysis and sufficient realism. An excerpt from the article is as follows:
Inside the United States, the voices of America's decline are endless. There are people inside the United States who have begun to regard the United States under Trump as a "failed country". Externally, there are fewer optimistic views of Trump's America. No country has turned to the United States for help in this coronavirus crisis, for the first time in more than 100 years since the United States entered the world system。
The Chinese society also has mixed feelings towards the United States under Trump. Many worry about Trump's irrationality and unpredictability, especially how Trump will behave in the face of unfavorable election conditions. Will the contradictions be transferred outward and the "China card" be played to the extreme? Will it continue to escalate the Cold War between China and the United States, which has already begun? Is it challenging China or even waging war on China's core interests, such as the South China Sea and Taiwan?
If people follow some of the views inside the United States and think that the United States is declining, or that the United States will disintegrate and can be "replace" internationally, they will make a great strategic mistake. Other countries may misinterpret the United States, China should not. Because the United States has defined China as its number one "enemy," China's evaluation of the United States must be practical, based on enough realism.
Rational analysis of internal contradictions in the United States
A rational analysis of what is happening in the United States is necessary.
Diplomacy is an extension of internal affairs. The foreign policy of the United States today is a reflection of its internal affairs. Internally, the United States today faces several major contradictions.
First, racial contradictions, mainly manifested in the BLM ("Black Lives Matter") movement. Movements of other races also existed, but were trumped by the BLM movement;
Second, class contradictions are mainly manifested in the huge problems of income distribution and wealth disparities. Since the 1980s, under the domination of neoliberal economics, the middle class that grew up in the United States after World War II and also what the United States was proud of, has shrunk sharply, and the middle-class society has evolved into a "society of plutocrat";
Third, ideological extremism is mainly manifested in the sharpening of the contradiction between conservatism and liberalism, which has evolved into radical conservatism and radical liberalism. There is less and less intersection between the two, while it is more unlikely for the two to compromise;
Fourth, the contradiction of political interests is manifested as a contradiction between Democrats and Republicans. Between the two parties, it is difficult to explain clearly along the line of ideology, politicians are selfish while the trend is evolving to the extreme, and the antagonism and hatred between them have become open and irreconcilable.
All these contradictions lead to problems haunting the U.S. governance system, or, as some have argued, failed governance. The key to governance failure lies in the failure of the party system. In the West, since modern times, political parties have been the most important means of organizing the political life of the country. Especially in the United States, almost all problems must be finally solved through its transformation in the party politics into national policy-making.
The US policy toward China has turned hostile
All these internal problems are also reflected at the international level in different ways, and many international and diplomatic problems have emerged, mainly as follows:
First, adjustment of relationships with alliances. After Trump took office, the United States rapidly reduced its commitment to its allies, either requiring allies to bear more costs of maintaining alliances, or reducing aid and support to all parties;
Second, "withdraw from the group" from international organizations. President Obama had begun to plan how the United States would withdraw in an orderly manner from some international affairs that had less impact on the United States, while moving to areas that were more important to the United States. But this strategy evolved into a comprehensive "withdrawal from the group" after Trump took office;
Third, the intensification of internal contradictions in the United States has led to the rise of Trump's populism, and the external manifestation of internal populism is nationalism; At the policy level, it is manifested in trade protectionism, economic nationalism and anti-immigration. It can be expected that if the United States cannot solve the domestic governance problem and continues to decline, American nationalism is likely to rise;
Fourth, the decline of soft power. After Trump took office, even many allies of the United States were terrified and carefully dealt with the United States, neither wanting to offend Trump nor blindly following the United States;
Fifth, the China policy of the United States has evolved into a hostile one. Externally, the United States has formally defined China as its number one adversary, followed by Russia. The diplomacy now being conducted by the United States is focused on China, trying to form the broadest "united front" against China. But more importantly, the China policy has also become an important part of U.S. internal affairs, with two parties competing for who is more ruthless toward China. Identity politics plays a key role here. Identity politics has a long-term impact on the U.S.’s China policy because it profoundly affects the perception of China in American society.
The United States is currently facing a governance crisis
The mixture of the stimulus of internal contradictions in the United States and the implementation of a comprehensive policy of suppression of China is powerful enough to induce some people's misjudgment of the United States. If this misjudgment affects China's foreign policy, it is foreseeable that it will be difficult to avoid China falling into the Agenda of China policy set by the United States. Therefore, in order to formulate an effective policy toward the United States, people need to make a rational analysis of the current situation in the United States on the basis of basic facts.
At least the following points should be recognized.
First, the United States is now facing a crisis of governance triggered by a political crisis, not a crisis of the overall political system. Today's BLM movement is purging the history of the United States, where statues of politicians, including constitutional founding figures, were torn down. However, the statue of the founding figures can fall, but the constitution will not; The Constitution can be amended, but it will not be abandoned;
Second, the institutional space in the United States is large enough, or the "institutional cage" is large enough to accommodate social movements. Today's black movement is far less than the black civil rights movement of the 1960s and 1970s. At that time, in addition to the civil rights movement, there was also a huge anti-Vietnam War movement. The U.S. approach is to make the "cage" bigger and give social groups more legal rights. Today, identity politics prevails in the United States, social movements are fragmented, and it is difficult to gather together to effectively impact the overall political system;
Third, as the BLM movement radicalizes, conservatism is on the rise. Wrestling between liberal and conservative forces is inevitable until both sides move to a new equilibrium. Few would argue that such a protest today would turn into a civil war;
Fourth, the separation of economy from politics. Capital pursues independence and autonomy, in order to free itself from political power and social shocks. So, in the West, all other problems won’t have a fatal impact on the economy. Politics can intervene, regulate, and revise the economy, but it cannot dominate economic principles and activities. This is also confirmed by the COVID-19 crisis. The pandemic has had a huge impact on all aspects of American society and daily economic life, but it has not put great pressure on the basic economic system of the United States;
Fifth, there is no significant indication that America's hard power is declining. Moreover, the presence and rise of hard power, in turn, will help the United States recover soft power in the aftermath of the crisis.
Not an issue of who is to take over and substitute the other between China and the United States
If these basic facts can be taken into account, it is not difficult to draw the following conclusions.
First, the decline of the United States is relative, that is, the decline in comparison with the development of other countries. If compared with the United States' own past, the United States is still developing, just in a slower pace;
Second, the decline of great powers is a long historical process. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's military remains one of the most powerful to this day. In this long process, the United States still has a chance to recover;
Third, the United States is not in a full decline, but in a partial manner. In the fields of economy, military, science and technology, innovation, etc., there is still no country that can compare with the United States;
Fourth, the "theory of decline" within the United States is mainly caused by the sense of crisis deeply felt in the United States. The United States is a crisis-driven society. Compared with the nationals of other countries, Americans have little patience. Counting in the wide dissemination of negative news by the media that show keen interests in it, American society often has a deep sense of crisis, and politicians (because of the votes) have to respond to it. It is not difficult to understand that there are always opinions of "Western decline" and "American decline" voiced uninterruptedly in the West and the United States.
As far as the Sino-US relations are concerned, the conclusion is also clear.
First, the tensions between the two countries are structurally determined, that is, China has risen to the point where the United States sees it as a real threat.
Second, the United States can contain China, and containment can also have an impact on China, but it cannot deter China's continued rise.
Third, It is not a question of who will take over and substitute the other, the United States cannot contain China, and China cannot replace the United States.
Fourth, the issue of between China and the United States is a question of coexistence. Throwing away all unrealistic illusions and learning to coexist with the United States, this should be the starting point of how people think about this issue.
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