川普发出中美关系变局信号
乔木 北京传媒学者
上周五川普打破几十年的惯例，和蔡英文通电话，成为最热的新闻。此事的影响，在於发出的信号。1979年中美建交公报指出，美国官方只承认中国，不和台湾发展官方关系。以後的几十年，美国的立场和做法是：当选总统、在任总统不和台湾领导直接接触，以此表示不承认台湾。而现在，川普不按规则出牌了。
川普还非常高调地在推特（twitter）宣称：「台湾总统今天给我打电话，祝贺我当选总统。」他用的是「台湾总统」的称谓。一直以来，大陆官方都用的是「台湾地区领导人」的说法。对副总统，则称台湾副领导人，虽有点好笑，但这就是政治态度，以此表示不承认。
随後，川普又发猛炮，在推特称：「有趣的是，美国向台湾卖了数以十亿美元计的军事装备，但是我却不该接一个祝贺电话。」这又触碰了中美关系最麻烦、目前也无解的美对台军售问题。1979年美政府虽和中国建交，但国会通过了《与台湾关系法》。主要内容是，为了台湾的安全，美国可向台卖武器。
现在川普就像那个说实话的孩子一样，脱下了「皇帝的新衣」。美国一直在给台湾卖武器，你都无计可施，现在接个电话，又奈我何？
川普这麽做，虽然拿他没办法，但确实有违美国官方一贯的做法。随後美国国务院的表态中，也重申了一个中国、只承认北京的立场。而对台军售，更是国内法凌驾於国际法之上，强权政治的做法。如果中国也向夏威夷卖武器，支持它「地位未定」、寻求某种变化，美国会怎想？
尽管境外媒体都在报道此事，但中国官媒只字不提，门户网站的消息很快被撤掉，社交媒体的贴子很多也被删除。眼不见，心不烦，或者是让你不知道，就当没发生。在中国，宣传部门、网络监管机构，总是比食品安全、外交部门更为快速果断。
後来，在例行的新闻发布会上，面对提问，外交部发言人重申了一个中国、主权不容干涉的立场，并称就此事在和美方交涉。外交部长则称这是台湾方面的小动作，不会改变中美关系大局。唯一表态的官媒《环球时报》发文，也把矛头对准台湾当局批评。
中国要交涉，也只能和美国政府交涉，促其表态。川普目前还没有入主白宫，像他一贯的大放厥词一样，只是代表个人。至於说是台湾方面的小动作，则是一厢情愿的解读了。如果没有双方事先的联系约定、谈话共识、应对後续的考虑，一方能搞出小动作？而且两个一把手的政治象徵举动，不是私人聊天的小动作那麽简单。
川普作为超级网红，受到国内外许多网民的追捧。比起希拉里，中国官方似乎也更能接受川普。因为他政治上，不像希拉里那样强调民主自由的价值观，战略上主张退守，注重美国经济的重振。中美的分歧主要在政治，生意总要做的。而且一直以来，中国更接受代表工商利益的共和党，抵触民主自由的民主党。但从实践来看，共和党的里根、老布殊在政治上更为强硬，搞垮苏联、89制裁；而民主党的克林顿、奥巴马时期，中美关系更为平稳。
川普不是民主党，也不受共和党主流的欢迎。此前不是职业政客，经常不按常理出牌，以後恐怕也会因袭此道，引发事端。他会淡化政治，专注经济，但安全上仍会加强，从强硬的国防部长人选上可见一斑。台湾问题事关安全，又是中美关系的症结所在。川普上台前夕，借通电话发出信号，未来四年，中美关系恐在此问题上，变局再起。
(东网)
特朗普挑战美中台关系的“政治正确”
【美国专栏 】 : 12月2日，候任美国总统特朗普与台湾总统蔡英文进行了一次10分钟左右的通话，接受蔡英文对他当选总统的祝贺。这是美国自1979年与中华民国断交至今37年来，两国领导人第一次通话，是特朗普继挑战美国的“政治正确”后对美中台三边关系的“政治正确”发起的石破天惊般的挑战。
通话结束，各方的反应铺天盖地。特朗普的回应则是简单明了：他先是表示，“台湾总统今天致电给我，祝贺我当选总统，谢谢她。”而后他再透过推特表示，“很有意思，美国为何卖给台湾数十亿美元的军事设备，我却不该接受一通祝贺电话。”
对这通电话，谁反应强烈，谁就是说了实话；谁装作若无其事，谁就是说了假话。中国外长王毅说：“这只是台湾方面搞的一个小动作，根本不可能改变国际社会已经形成的一个中国格局，也不会改变美国政府多年来坚持的一个中国政策。”熟悉中共官员语言表达习惯的人，一听就知道：王毅说的这个“小动作”，对于中国政府来讲是一个多么大的动作，他们感到震惊和忧虑的，正是“改变国际社会已经形成的一个中国格局，改变美国政府多年来坚持的一个中国政策。”
所谓“国际社会已经形成的一个中国格局，美国政府多年来坚持的一个中国政策”便是美中台三边关系的“政治正确”。在这个“政治正确”下：世界上明明有两个中国——“中华人民共和国”和“中华民国”，却可以被说成“世界上只有一个中国，那就是中华人民共和国”；在这个“政治正确”下，把大片领土拱手送人、对国家领土完整毫不在乎的中共政权，却可以宣称台湾是中国不可分割的一部分，台湾未来的命运要由他们来决定，虽然他们从来没有对台湾实行过统治；在这个“政治正确”下，美国和国际社会，任由霸道、凶残的中共专制政权，对2300万人口的民主台湾肆无忌惮的压迫和欺凌：台湾在联合国和国际组织的参与权、台湾的国际生存空间被剥夺殆尽。美中台三边关系的“政治正确”，显示了美国当政者在中共政权淫威面前的怯懦，从克林顿到奥巴马，以帮助中共欺压台湾为能事，是美国的耻辱。
未来，特朗普能在挑战美中台关系“政治正确”的路上能走多远，不得而知。因为他要为此承受美国朝野“政治正确”扞卫者们的极大压力。有人甚至断言：特朗普一旦住进白宫，他也要受“政治正确”的规范。美国有一群政治家，以消费美中台关系的“政治正确”为生，典型人物如前国务卿基辛格，他已成为中共政权在美国的代理人，他如今又到中国去了。
仅就特朗普与蔡英文的通话而言，至少特朗普给了蔡英文与习近平一样的待遇。在美国，支持特朗普大有人在。国会共和党籍参议员汤姆•科顿说：“我赞同当选总统特朗普与蔡英文总统通话，这再次证实我们对中国土地上唯一的民主体制的支持。”
作为民主世界的领导者，美国没有理由在美中台三边关系中，成为中共政权欺辱和压迫民主台湾的支持者。台海两岸的华人，和全世界的华人，都在注视着特朗普入主白宫后的美中台三边关系，也许什么也看不到，也许能看到特朗普从与蔡英文通话的一个小动作开始，推动美中台三边关系翻天覆地的变化。这变化就是：三边关系的“政治正确”成为“政治不正确”，而特朗普对“政治正确”的挑战，才是今后三边关系的“政治正确”。
(法广RFI 旧金山特约记者王山)
"Trump is finally calling their bluff."
Stop Freaking Out, Donald Trump’s Taiwan Phone Call Was a Good Thing
Chris Murphy, a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, thinks Donald Trump has just put America on the road to war.
In reality, the opposite may be true. The president-elect may have taken the first steps to stabilize East Asia.
On Thursday and Friday, Mr. Trump spoke over the phone with his counterparts in Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, the Philippines, and Singapore. Yet by far the most controversial, and consequential, conversation occurred on Friday, when he exchanged pleasantries for 10 minutes with Tsai Ing-wen, the Taiwan leader.
Trump spoke with Tsai without consulting the White House or the State Department. He also bypassed the American Institute in Taiwan, America’s liaison office in Taipei.
Critics jumped at the lack of coordination. Senator Murphy, in a tweet, called the phone conversations “major pivots in foreign policy w/out any plan.” And then the Connecticut Democrat dropped this line on the public: “That’s how wars start.”
Murphy, by raising the prospect of titanic armed struggle, could not have been thinking of Trump’s conversations with Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines or Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan. The president-elect may have made a few misguided comments while discussing affairs with them, but these mistakes were innocuous.
The words with Tsai, however, caught everyone’s attention. America has shunned Taiwan since 1979 when President Carter broke off diplomatic ties with Taipei in order to establish them with Beijing. As a result of that policy, today Washington pretends that a vibrant democratic society of 24 million people is not a country, although it has all the attributes of one.
Pretend no more. The Trump transition team’s readout of the Tsai conversation signaled a momentous shift in direction. The president-elect essentially recognized the island as a sovereign state by calling her “President of Taiwan.”
Beijing, on the other hand, claims Taiwan, taking the view that it is merely the 34th province of the People’s Republic of China.
Because the Trump-Tsai call ignored China’s “core” interest in Taiwan, many analysts and diplomats—not to mention junior senators from Connecticut—believe Beijing would go to war with the U.S. Murphy, therefore, draws a straight line from the phone call heard round the world to Armageddon.
But perhaps Murphy and others should put the end-of-the-world worries on hold.
Trump did not “wing” that momentous foreign policy decision, as former diplomat Christopher Hill charged Friday evening on CNN. Stephen Yates, on the Trump transition team and a thoughtful voice on China in conservative circles, was reported to have been in Taiwan when the call from Tsai took place, fueling speculation he helped plan the event. Moreover, it would have been unlikely for the cautious Tsai to make the call without knowing in advance it would be answered, especially because a rejected call would create major political embarrassment for her and her party. So the conversation looks like the opening gambit by Trump to reorient China policy.
And despite the hand-wringing from the American foreign policy establishment, documented in a Fox News op-ed by Yates and Christian Whiton, a State Department official in the Bush years, the Tsai call could help avoid conflict.
How so? The Chinese have done an almost-perfect job of convincing others that they are willing to start hostilities if that is what is necessary to win Taiwan. Therefore, most everyone else has been intimidated. Seeing how well belligerence has worked, Beijing has ramped up its tough tactics to bolster its frightening image.
Accordingly, Chinese leaders have, over time, employed more dire-sounding language. In October 2013, for example, Xi Jinping ominously put a time limit on the resolution of the Taiwan problem. “Looking further ahead,” he said to a senior Taiwan envoy, “the issue of political disagreements that exist between the two sides must reach a final resolution, step by step, and these issues cannot be passed on from generation to generation.”Trump, by calling Taiwan a separate state, indirectly told the Chinese he is not afraid of them, saying, in effect, he does not respect their most important concerns. He is, in a real sense, starting a new relationship with Beijing, putting everything China has won in the past four decades back on the table.
Henry Kissinger, in the Chinese capital in the last few days, has tried to reassure Xi about the inherent stability of U.S. policy. Nonetheless, Trump shortly after told the Chinese he is not interested in pleasing them. The president-elect has, therefore, given them a reason to act more in line with his wishes.
If the Tsai call was to create a bargaining chip, as some believe, Trump could be looking to establish a grand bargain, willing to negotiate trade, North Korea, Taiwan, and a dozen other subjects with nothing out-of-bounds.
It’s more likely, however, that the grand negotiator of Fifth Avenue was reverting to his strong “America First” impulse. If so, Chinese leaders are in for a tough four years.
American policy, from the end of the Cold War to today, has been to put Chinese interests first by trying to integrate China into the existing international system. This extraordinarily generous and patient policy looked like it was working until the end of last century.
Then, achieving success, the Chinese got confident to the point of arrogance and began challenging the American-led system. Those challenges have demonstrated that the assumptions underpinning American policy—that China would agree to defend the post-Cold War world after becoming its biggest beneficiary—could not have been more wrong.
Today, America’s Taiwan policy is unsustainable. That policy, incredibly, undermines a friendly free society to help an authoritarian state that is at the same time attacking American values.
That policy also works against Washington’s efforts to maintain stability in East Asia. Taiwan is the “cork in the bottle,” the land mass in the First Island Chain at the intersection of the South China and East China Seas. The “unsinkable aircraft carrier” prevents the Chinese navy and air force from reaching the Western Pacific and thereby helps contain Beijing’s dangerous expansionism.
But Washington, inexplicably over the course of decades, has sought to weaken Taiwan.
Many—and not just American Firsters—wonder what’s the point of helping Beijing, an adversary, by forcing a friend, Taiwan, into its arms. Trump, with 10 minutes on the phone Friday, looks like he began correcting America’s biggest foreign policy mistake.
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