关于日本失去的二十年,以及它和当年广场协定之间的关系,有过很多的争议,但是很多人没有注意的是,广场协定并不是美日两国之间的协定,而是包括了美日德(当年的西德)法英五国的协定。
1985年9月22日,美国、日本、联邦德国、法国以及英国的财政部长和中央银行行长(简称G5)在纽约广场饭店举行会议,达成五国政府联合干预外汇市场,诱导美元对主要货币的汇率有秩序地贬值,以解决美国巨额贸易赤字问题的协议。 因协议在广场饭店签署,故该协议又被称为“广场协议”。
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纵观日本经济近三十年来的发展,1985年的广场协议是一个转折点。有分析指出,广场协议后,受日元升值影响,日本出口竞争力备受打击,经济一蹶不振了十几年。甚至在经济学界,有相当一部分人认为,广场协议是美国为整垮日本而布下的一个惊天大阴谋。但是实际上,20世纪80年代中后期,日本经济陷入停滞。但是,将日本“失落十年”完全归咎于“广场协议”则很牵强,“广场协议”像是美国放的一把火,与后续日本政府政策上浇的“油”一起烧掉了日本十年。
有关的论述我在以前的一篇文章中已经比较详细的分析过,今天,我们就来对比一下,当年同样签署了广场协定的德国,为什么没有失去的二十年,而且愈发强劲,并成为了世界上最大的工业品出口国。令无数人倍感不解,难道德国人都是神仙,对美国的子弹可以免疫吗?当然不是,之所以避开了日本覆辙,是因为德国走了和日本完全不同的路。
第一,德国自己选择的不同道路。
在经济学中,“独立货币政策、资本自由流动、固定汇率”三者只能选其二,一个国家不能同时兼具三个。
与日本神经紧张,疯狂盯着汇率不同,德国选择了前两个,放弃了对汇率的干预,重点关注国内物价和生产稳定,其次才考虑汇率稳定。与日本疯狂的降准降息,企图扭转汇率不同,德国降低了贴现率和抵押贷款利率,却把存款利率提高到了5.5%以上。与日本央妈乖乖听从美国货币政策调度,M2增速从8%上升到12%不同,德国的M2增速却不断温和下降。借着这一系列不同,德国成功避开了险滩,不仅没有出现大规模的资产泡沫,经济和出口甚至也完全未受汇率的大幅波动影响。在签订广场协议之后几年,汇率虽然不断高涨,经济增长却仍然高达2.3%,到1986年甚至还取代美国成为全球最大的贸易出口国。
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)
德国始终眼睛向内,其央行以稳定物价为己任,没有实行超低利率和超量货币发行的政策,因此没有爆发楼市和股市泡沫,当然也就没有泡沫破灭后的长期衰退或者是萧条。
第二,欧盟的建立对于德国的影响
德国位居欧洲中央,欧洲一体化(欧盟的建立)为德国分担了很多风险,但无疑政策的差异才是德国走出困难的关键。欧盟的建立对于德国可以说是最大的受益者。2016年,德国GDP达到31341亿欧元,人均GDP实现3.8万欧元。德国贝塔斯曼基金会2014年公布的一项研究结果显示,自欧盟1993年成立以来,实现商品、人员、资本和服务自由流动的欧洲内部市场对成员国经济增长起到了积极促进作用,但却存在较大差异:大国中德国经济受益最多,每年因内部市场而受益370亿欧元,相当于每人每年450欧元;南欧国家的年人均受益明显较低,意大利每人每年受益80欧元,西班牙70欧元,葡萄牙20欧元。以德国的最大体量,十几年积攒下来就是很大的差距,而且南欧国家同德国的差距还在扩大。
欧盟是德国最大的出口市场,德国60%的出口产品都销往欧盟,其中包括在欧元区流通的40%和在欧盟中非欧元区国家流通的20%,德国1/6的就业依赖于对欧盟的出口。“德国制造”之所以畅销欧洲很大程度上获益于欧元制度的建立和欧盟内部市场的形成。欧元的引入建立了统一的欧盟大市场,使经济相对弱小的国家失去了依靠汇率阻止德国高端产品的屏障,“德国制造”得以迅速占领欧盟内部市场,增强了德国经济的竞争力。
对比之下,可以看出来,德国首先是有实力,然后也是贸易一体化发挥了优势。与广场协议前美国是日本的主要出口国不同,德国的主要出口国家较为分散,除美国以外,德国对法国、英国和意大利的出口份额也非常大。
![](http://images.mofcom.gov.cn/de/201711/20171115184306558.png)
德国2000年-2015年外贸及外贸盈余发展情况(单位:10亿欧元,数据来源:德国联邦统计局)
2. 东西德国统一的益处
这是一个很少有人提到的角度,对比一下西德与日本在同样签订了广场协议后经济情况的不同: 就是广场协议后五年,东西德统一了,西德用涌入的资金补贴东德,并购了一系列东德前国有企业,比如米勒万家顿收购艾尔福特(这两家企业听说过的应该没几个人,本来德国那些中小企业本来也没什么知名度)。同时获得了大量同种同文,受过同样严格的职业教育的廉价劳动力和巨大市场。要知道统一前的东德是社会主义国家中经济发展最好的,一度达到了世界第二十名,这里就不得不提一下德意志民族的高素质,两德统一后,德国政府给与东德一方大量的补贴,但是同时也大量吸收了大批适合精密制造,高端制造所需要的高素质人才。
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后来德国加入欧元区,放松欧盟技术人员的移民要求等也有相似的考量。反观日本的移民政策和对东亚经济一体化的态度(如果有一体化这么一回事的话),基本向着建设以机器人完成99%的劳动,人类进入按需分配的共产主义国家的方向上一条路走到黑了。 对于中国来说,面对美元2015年的升值和国内经济放缓的局面,放开农民进城落户政策,让进城的农民享受到同样的住房教育医疗基础设施(获取劳动力和市场,盖房的开发商售楼员包工头民工,物业人员,配套餐饮娱乐业,商业,医院的医生护士护工,学校的老师校长校工都是就业岗位)。由这部分产生的城市化需求就足以让中国经济保持一个稳定的增长速度,甚至再次进入高速增长通道了。
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5/yf4+GeiYmdr5/a/2vHpZ5RcfZGx221xISHBTK7TAlpUIYQxKbO56nv0VB1zG/omrzAYRIY1ijXKiKFUdQH+p7+NcVg4ORnixan7bEYjksQB5MqurZLLfQpkFjvsH667wVeWWGWGOfT/xnfflM4zjMxPKPjsbHEmeRgg0HeSdygDVmPADU1X8lPifLzYaH1AbTOPvsPNL91Tm7xuqYmzY+WMzXd9yljfIp3rGNyg21tqeJNhabU3XDGnDYZI0CIqoq6BVAAHsArdSlYFV21NlpPJA7M6mCTlVCkgMcrLZhxHSv+XUTVjVZtZZyw5K98rW3ZQ+ZfKB4Zc3+dxIrYmuBZXpVRFh8V0TJIZBmUkCykLlYMDlAzb107qnbMVxEge+a2t9TbgCeLWtc9dYJNV2M2SC5libkJjvcC6vbcJU0Eg4X0I4EVZUpE0KrDbWIcRYhRBITZTe8Uh+4+nSt6Bsd9rgXq0rXiMMkilHVXVhYqwuCO8GsYTDiNAi5iBuzMWNuq51NbNCi2j/AMHiDiRpBKQMSOCPuTEdw9F+7KfRNS5fCPD5ikfKYhhoRCjSWPUWHRB7ia1+EqmQw4e+VJnKycC0aozmMHhmsAe69UU20pdnAYQRlkuGw77xyWdQ0LAal1DWGmosd96yZ1R9np6XRidMTvOXEXX79l8fCWJReaPEYccWkibKPa63UD2mvGO2bzhmkjdMsiIFdTmtblOlaxVtJDb2bxUbavhFLFFE/JBGkUsUcnMtmRfJ0J0e5G/So3g5PlxCZMqpiBOzImiCSGTLyiL6OYHUddjvvXPX5qdMv419PXVc97ia5/e6xi2AyzcqJLWPRG/Kt7k7rO7aglrkAjU5ddmK2O7uWJQ7rEjVxkKnlAAATdswPDKAANSbuldHic/hvB9kKHMrMgVQ+tyFtmdhuZ3yi9+oG9Wxwl5S5swZAhUi9rEk27jm1/CtSqUHPYTwfkVYg0gdkkZixAuVzhkXQDyUVU/8WOzHbGklZiTGpJFiL6jKQcw4m7XvroAOjvq9pQUG1thySRkK5kJkjcCQkquVwTYG4Nhw7hqDYiauz2zMeioMwlFrkgBVU+wnKQe5iKsqUHzilZpQd7s3zMf4E/aKk1G2b5mP8CftFSaBSlKBSlKBUTaODjxETwyDMjqVYXsbHqI1B6jwIqUwuLVzmydgujTFmZeUUBbNmKi7Agg3Vmy5OkcxuTr1omYm4GpWx0KmKWLxjENBJGyJNYHdJGxCswtqysL+qK0YqYyqqeLcY2QkqGkjiUMTcksJNR32NbJvBqY4WGJJMjJIjkNdgAAoZQb9xb29W8V+0NjytJCDNCRh+i5lkdeUsQ4OgAzdJb3zbxe/HpOWE5apwi/XeP32ImYiolL2f4ICSQTYsAFRaOCKSYxxX3sXJBeSxIzAKLEi3GrZfBnCH0ZP15/51Bw+ZcU8pnWRZdCoY2SMkKpVwtrqbC1x5y5Ogvt2PsF4+Wzsy8oFC9LMVTdlIOhbKqjMbnU6775l1MprtEcRHEH1Sh4M4Q+jIf8A75/5Vn+l8J6sn62I/lVc/g1K2Ehw+dQqlGdWBkvZQDGCTu3m5vqd1dFs+ORYkWRs7hQGbTVranQAf4FZry9RXf0vhPVk/WxH8qf0vhPVk/WxH8quaU15eo5+fYWATy8yfinnUbwN5frYe+tD7P2WACZFAbyScVLY7xoc+uoPuNWG1cBI80UiBGEetmLLdr2GoB0ys/Dj36Rtr7GmxBjYukRVlJUDOLAtez9E6huoHv33a8vUaH2dssGxkA8k64mbc98p8vjY267Vv8R4DNkOYN6vOJ78OGfvHvFV+2fBWSUvZy2dIVYhuSJ5MONNGC3Lgk7/AHAVIbYD8ushRCubMVDmwIMeS4IsbZGa+/pW4Xpry9RP/pfCerJ+tiP5U/pfCerJ+tiP5VcCs015eopv6XwnqyfrYj+VP6XwnqyfrYj+VXNKa8vUcrtrwawAjOd2w+oySGeUFHOgKl2tfW351XNshY2jXEYQ4l1IeN4pnNyljn5GV7qRmG4sNe+um25sZcTkubZDm42NiCFIG8XUXvwvWufYAbELOJXQohjXKI7qpKmwLA6dE3Bve/cKmbnu64dWcYqYuP8AnwrsTtLl9RgS7KrgGdoo1UXs+bVmAuutl9Gt/g5s6ODNI0kbuVv0ejHHC7FgEBNwpbMSxOpHAAAZh8FEAkUsCJFkViEtJ02Ziwe+h1GlrdHdqa9YLwbEKMiPcEQ2ve5aJy5Ja50bQW4AcaiMN7lWXXnRoxio9/z+F+DWtMQhNgyki+gIJ0Nj7jVRhvB4KLNK7iy2Gu9QRe7Ft99a34LZHJSZg1xmduo3YBQvssLnrNt1qtwWtKUoFKUoFKUoPnNKUoO92b5mP8CftFSajbN8zH+BP2ipNApSlApSlArFqE0vQDVbLsdGkztquYvlt6TKFIv6uga3rAG+gFWIYHUEGs5hQV0mx47nLdbjKQDcZcwZgL7r5QCfdrrVlavIcXtcXo0gG8ge02oPVKwTQtQZpSvLyAWuQL7rm19L/wCgNB6pXlXB1BB9lYilVhdSGFyNNdVJBHtBBH5UHulq8q4N7EGxsbdfVQOL2uLixtxsd3+h91B6pWvlluBmGt7ajW2+vRYDeQKD1SlYLAbyBQZpXlXBAIIIIuCNxHXfqoGFr3FqD1SsZh1il6DNKxmF7cazQKUpQKUpQKUpQfOaUpQd7s3zMf4E/aKk1G2b5mP8CftFSaBSlKBSlKCn8I4iypbhIhvv9IaWGpvqOq1yb7jWbHZhHMHMoJAIP/EtrmfpC6g6kre3C166ulXGdY6aHLYc2inyidWZCVQieynLdyCRvLlu82031p2ZDlkhYtKCzyixaYHk4xOArBrXjF1K39Yd1ddWa3xNp2ZTidnxsMSjLojSEFgrEEEyyA5mut8zKuYEE8oalYnBScuJLMXJmI+ziNgJkCm5W9shJve/Vxq/xplVg6AyLYhoxYHfcOpNgSNQQSL336WOo7bhHlcqh6mimB/bSerMyUpdsxOZpGWORj0SgAA5QoA2UNcMutukNOs1q23C8ghMP2rBUDZ1LEAso6QcjLmu11O8hb2tcX3j7D+s/wClN/Gnj7D+s/6U38a2OrMVtw1p2G7pDEjITcEMQLZGF9GB1tpa+up43vTwogLQi2rBhlW2YMToQV49G9u+t3j7D+s/6U38aePsP6z/AKU38ajVWWpiq2PhDHhpFWIh82iKDCRYdHM9wzDTfcm2ncM+CWDkjVsyyW5SfWVyXuZXPkXIs2huD7wQatRt3DcXKgcWSRAB7WAFTYMQjqGRldTuKkEH2EVU9SZiY9SnHeCUMivhswcfYNnuHHStH5V416V77yx3+2sYNZudF7S3YYVS18RrlmlLg3GWwV9QeiA2l7muol2zh1JXlVJU2YLdyD1ELcg1q8fYf1n/AEpv41U9a725/ttOexeAkMhcq9le98iuws+thlueioa435uJvUvF4d2ldzG6o5UggIrBEyuWJjHKNfKRlJuDl0Otrfx9h/Wf9Kb+NPH2H9Z/0pv41Piyw2RNII4ldGuYwxcnNZtOi1+lm138bHdUHwogZmgYA9GQ3IBZtUfQW1G7fw0qb49w/rP+lN/Gs+PsP6z/AKU38anHOsra53Zkcq4bLeQHlkKrGHQWOji+hIADtbuXuFZ2SS2GYlm5QrAHhDS2RcwzARi7RghmBAF7CugfFSTdGJZIxcZpHUpZQdQqt0ix3XIAF73NrGztVz1foynH4FSiqxMzM2HkkdbyFmyqgAdX6JYEEC+/jxvY7GgiQ5XF5Q+hIb1Ru4Ab7dVX9Kmc7HGQ7PmGLzmJiNGsSD/zC2+40Fj791dmDS1ZpnnqaUpSoClKUClKUHzmlKUHe7N8zH+BP2ipNUuz9t4cRRgyahF9F/VHdUjx7hu0+V/pQWVKrfHuG7T5X+lPHuG7T5X+lBZUqt8e4btPlf6U8e4btPlf6UFlSq3x7hu0+V/pTx7hu0+V/pQWVKrfHuG7T5X+lPHuG7T5X+lBZUqt8e4btPlf6U8e4btPlf6UFlQ1W+PcN2nyv9KePcN2nyv9KDfPimU2Ecj965LfMwNQ9obcSFQXDAm3R6OYAsBc2Nv88Kh4zGYeRsxeBuAz4d3IHVe46zw41ox8sEqRqcQoKHhHIEIswACcCLjj6NTN9nbDw7jV+VmNtqY0dVZi7hAt1BBILC+thoP81XbTeOwlKtD9rycyAX5UZSbOU3cDm10DL6VZWbDGGKF5VdUy36Dkllta1wbDff3VrxbYZkMazKqZ86rybDKcpBGgFxcg+8VnmbHhX9E3DbdiEbZIyoQLlQBR0SQNF9G2ZdCOOl6kYHbSykAK4YqWtbgAptc6Xs6++qaLm+Uo2JzIQAQEcHolSNWuALg6ADyqzgDDFquIFzGIj0H8lblCpt0TdtdDcWHAUjUrKOjU1z7rbBbcEsvJiKQHpZiTH0crZdQD11MON1tycp1tfLpv336q5/BnDRusi4g5uln6DAMGJbgL+UeN/wDvUxtpJ/7xh7Ih/Gti63Rn4ery8e7oKVWLtzDdp8r/AErPj3Ddp8r/AEqnFY2rNVvj3Ddp8r/Snj3Ddp8r/SgsqVW+PcN2nyv9KePcN2nyv9KCypVb49w3afK/0p49w3afK/0oLKlVvj3Ddp8r/Snj3Ddp8r/SgsqVW+PcN2nyv9KePcN2nyv9KCypVb49w3afK/0p49w3afK/0oOLpUPxnD649zfSsUH/2Q==)
广场协议的全面真实的分析说明,比起汇率战,国内政策的失误将对国民经济造成更重大的损害。这个道理,蒙代尔在不可能三角理论中已有揭示。这一理论揭示:独立货币政策、资本自由流动和固定汇率三者不可能同时满足,而三者的重要性是依次递减的。只是蒙代尔后来为了固守其“最优货币区”的教条理论而走上了反对自己这一理论的道路,片面地、不恰当地强调固定汇率而忽视独立的货币政策的重要性。
日本在广场协议以后,依然认为汇率政策是最重要的,为了弥补日元升值后可能带来的负面影响,货币政策大推泡沫经济,丧失了根据国内情况制订因地制宜政策的独立性,终于酿成大错。而德国选择了不同的道路,可见,化解困难的方式有很多种,不同的选择会决定最后的结果。
(很多内容总结自网络)
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