作者：Renn
链接：https://www.zhihu.com/question/52496216/answer/130789544
来源：知乎
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How did Donald Trump win the 2016 US Presidential Election?
正文:
Trump won thanks to the Democrats. So if that was your party, you have them to blame.
特朗普大获全胜，得多亏民主党的助攻。
如果你是民主党人，这锅得你们的党背。
As a preface, I am writing this from a neutral, objective standpoint.
开头申明，我的这篇文字立场相当理客中的。
(感谢李云卿 - 知乎同志的提醒，译者特此申明: 我的译文是相对不理客中的，如果有意见.................................................自己憋着，就酱紫，哈哈)
Let’s start with the key factor here. It’s summed up in one slogan:
先提一个关键点。
下面这张图，一图可以蔽之
"The silent majority stands with Trump."
“支持特朗普的是沉默多数”
Remember this quote on those signs being held by his supporters? It served as both a slogan, and, as we have found out…
特朗普支持者手举的这张牌子上，引用了一句话，还记得吗？
这既是一句口号，也是这个问题的答案。
It was a warning.
它是一声警钟
A warning that went completely unheeded by every major news outlet. They laughed it off.
可在主流媒体上，这句警告却全无踪影，对这些(底层呼声)，他们只会放声嘲笑。
“That’s great kids, but Clinton has the vocal majority, good game.”
”不错哟。可是克林顿掌握了能发出声音的大多数，躺赢!”
(因为有评论在批评“good game"的翻译，这里解释下。"GOOD GAME"有形势一片大好，比赛局面优势明显的意思。套用一下网络流行语，就是“躺赢”啦)
And yet the election results prove that the slogan was indeed true. A huge silent majority overwhelmed the predicted polling outcome.
选举结果却确凿地证明，那句标语所反映的情况，其实是无可辩驳的事实。沉默的大多数，最终用选票压倒了先前一个个民意调查。
Why was this the key factor?
And why were the polls so radically off?
原来这才是本次选举的关键因素?
原来这些民意调查其实已偏离事实，错得如此离谱?
为什么?
For starters, the Democrats made a terrible assumption, one that hadn’t caused them any trouble up until now:
首先，民主党人先入为主，预设了立场。
这个假设立场变成了隐形地雷，一直拖到现在，终于爆发了
They assumed that states that historically voted blue would continue to do so.
他们自以为是，觉得只要是传统意义上的蓝州，就会一如既往地把票投给民主党。
And this is where it all goes down. Every polling prediction used this assumption as a starting point, taking them for granted. They focused heavily on battleground states, ignoring the possibility that their home base was susceptible to attack. They ignored the warning of a silent majority.
而这一点，成了他们栽倒的主要原因。所有的民意调查，都把这个预设立场当成理所当然。民主党人也因此将注意力集中在摇摆州上。他们压根没有意识到，在共和党的攻势下，自己的大本营最后都会不堪一击。“沉默大多数” 先前发出的警告，被他们直接无视了。
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan have been blue 3for the past two decades. This election, each one flipped red, undermining the core of pundit predictions. It was precisely when this flip happened that everyone started panicking and Clinton’s odds of winning plummeted. The silent majority struck, and it struck hard.
过去二十年里，威斯康辛州、宾尼法尼亚州和密西根州(三个蓝州)一直把票投给民主党，但本次选举，他们却打破了先前各种权威预测，全部反水，转成一片通红。正是从这三个州的跳反开始，所有人都跌破了眼镜，克林顿的胜算也随之渺茫。沉默的大多数完成了他们的反击，一个耳光打得民主党人金星乱闪。
But why were they silent up until now?
可是，那些人为什么(不得不)沉默到此刻才爆发出来呢?
The Clinton campaign made it acceptable, trendy, and cool to hate Trump supporters
克林顿的竞选宣传，让许多人以为，对特朗普支持者抱恶感，是一件炫酷、时髦、可以接受的事情。
The Clinton campaign colluded with major media news outlets (as evidenced from Wikileaks) and constantly pumped out negative videos of Trump while largely ignoring the constant scandals Hillary found herself in.
克林顿的竞选团队跟主流媒体串通在一起，源源不断地翻出黑特朗普的各种视频，而克林顿各种麻烦缠身的丑闻，很大程度上却被忽视了。
In his speeches, Trump often made remarks of certain minority groups. These remarks usually included praise along side criticism, and he usually made sure to add that he didn’t mean to say that a minority group as a whole was to blame.
特朗普在他的演讲中，经常对少数族裔评头论足，有夸赞，也不乏批评。可是，他并非一概而论，每次讲话提到这个话题时，他总要加上不偏不颇的几句话，避免留下以偏概全、打倒一片的印象。
The news outlets pounced on this. It wasn’t hard, they just had to edit out or not show the parts where Trump explained himself. As a result, the people who actually attended his rallies saw perfectly reasonable statements, and those who didn’t only saw edited footage that showed him making racist and outlandish remarks with no clarification. On top of that, the edited footage was often spliced with cheering from his audience. Any reasonable person seeing a clip like that, without knowing it was edited, would rightly be horrified by both Trump and his supporters.
但媒体却一股脑儿扑上去，对着特朗普大肆鞭挞。他们的手法其实也没多复杂，只需将特朗普自我辩解的部分剪去，或者干脆不放出来。结果，参加特朗普集会的群众，听到的是理性的政治主张，而另些人只看过经过删减的视频片段，他们就会觉得特朗普思维紊乱、出言不逊、种族歧视。剪辑者甚至添火加油地在视频里加上了集会群众的喝彩声，一个人但凡有些理性，接触了这种视频，自然而然会被特朗普和他的支持者骇破胆子。
And so a divide was created.
几次三番，几次三番，社会裂痕便被撕开了。
“Trump is racist and his supporters are racist” became the justification for hating Trump supporters. From that point on, any person who outed themselves as a Trump supporter while in a liberal circle could expect to get shamed. The better option was to stay silent.
“特朗普这个种族主义者，他的支持者也都是一丘之貉” ，痛恨特朗普支持者，于是便有了正当理由。从此以后，自由派圈子里胆敢发声支持特朗普的人，都会被羞辱一番。稍识时务的，唯有保持沉默。
The Clinton campaign didn’t stop there. They paid celebrities large sums of money to endorse Hillary, in an effort to reach a millennial base. They even paid many prominent YouTubers to endorse her, videos of which can be found right now (along with videos by YouTubers who called out that kind of play and refused).
克林顿的竞选团队却并没有就此收手。他们给名人大把大把塞钱，买通他们出面支持希拉里，以此攫取千禧一代的票源。甚至许多youtube博主也被收买，相关(证据)的视频流传出来，早已不再是秘密。
They made it seem like all the “cool kids” were supporting Hillary, and against the evil that was Trump. How does a Trump supporter argue against a pop culture icon telling everyone they are evil? Should probably stay silent instead.
他们玩弄这种伎俩，搞得似乎所有的“酷小孩”都在支持希拉里，都在挺身反对“恶魔”特朗普。 流行文化的标签人物纷纷给大众灌输一个概念: “特朗普就是恶魔的化身”。特朗普的支持者，如何还能与之相抗，自我分辨? 他们只能保持沉默。
With the mainstream media calling out Trump supporters as evil, celebrities saying the same, and even many universities deeming pro-Trump comments as “hate speech”, it’s not hard to see why the silent majority formed and became as potent as it was.
主流媒体将特朗普支持者抹黑成“恶魔”，社会名流则充当他们的传声筒，甚至许多大学也将亲特朗普的言论称之为“仇恨言论”。不难看出，沉默的大多数为什么会沉默，但爆发出的潜力又是如此惊人!
The Democrats tried to show that passing judgment on groups of people as a whole was bigoted. And yet that’s exactly what they did by lumping all Trump supporters into a “basket of deplorables”.
民主党人试图传递这种理念: 将一个群体打上一个整体标签的行为，是一种偏执的成见。可是对待特朗普支持者，他们却把这些人全部丢入“basket of deplorables”(可鄙者联盟?)的范畴里，这难道不是在挖坑把自己埋了吗?
That irony was not lost on the silent majority.
“沉默的多数”身上，一再地被上演这种十足反讽的行径。
The DNC collusion against Bernie Sanders created “Bernie bros”
沆瀣一气的民主党人，为反对伯尼·桑德斯，创造出“伯尼兄弟会”这样的词汇。
It’s well known now that the Democratic primary was not fairly fought. Bernie Sanders was backstabbed by the very party he was representing, due to its higher financial and political interest in a Clinton presidency. Yet Bernie’s message touched the hearts of many who sought to overthrow the establishment and the system that Clinton represented. When he was betrayed by the DNC, many of his supporters refused to back Clinton, the one who unfairly robbed the man they put their faith in of a fair fight.They saw in Bernie an outsider who would bring change to the system, and who else was a populist icon who also wanted to bring down the establishment?
民主党初选中的种种不公，现在已不是什么秘密。民主党的政治利益和经济利益被捆绑在希拉里·克林顿总统选举的战车上，结果伯尼·桑德斯被自己的政党在背后捅了刀子。伯尼在大选中的政治主张，打动了很多人，尤其那些希望推翻建制派统治的人。 当桑德斯遭受民主党背叛时，许多信仰桑德斯政治主张的支持者，亲眼见证了他被剥夺公平竞争的机会，自然不会再去支持希拉里·克林顿。桑德斯这样的局外人，曾被视作改变体制的希望。联想一下是不是有另一个谁，也被大众视作扳倒建制派的标志性人物?
You guessed it.
猜到了吧?
Well… you can’t really announce out loud that you were for Bernie and now for Trump. See the point above.
当然……你不可能当众宣布，称自己从前支持桑德斯，现在转投特朗普。读读上文就明白为什么。
The silent majority grew even more.
结果，沉默的人数又增多了。
Legitimate issues went unaddressed by Clinton
大众如此合理的诉求，克林顿却一直漠视
Trump wanted to “Make America Great Again”. How was he going to do this? We still don’t know, but it does involve a lot of winning apparently.
特朗普希望“美国伟大复兴”。怎么做? 谁心里都没谱。但是很明显，这句口号给他赢得很多支持。
But note the starting point. “Making it great again” recognizes that it currently is not. His platform was based around acknowledging that America had problems while under eight years of Democrat rule.
记得文章开头吗? “美国的伟大复兴”这句口号，其实暗中包含着”美国当下现状令人相当不满意”的含义。他的种种政治主张，都有一个前提，即美国这八年，在民主党的治理下，各种问题是层出不穷。
America is suffering. Unemployment is high, and worse, the government is trying to distort statistics to show otherwise, in the hopes of winning another election cycle. Trump identified areas where it was affecting the core bulk of Americans, such as job outsourcing. Did it even matter if he didn’t have a concrete plan? Just saying the problem exists alone let those infuriated by the current system feel that their voices were being heard. “Make America Great Again”, while vague in its means, was nevertheless inspirational in its promised end.
What did the Democrats do to counter this? Remember this attempt?
美国国内形势每况愈下。失业率高企不下，且有愈演愈恶化的趋势。本届政府却扭曲数据,试图用这些伎俩掩盖现状，赢得本轮选举。但本届大选中，特朗普成功锁定了包括了工作外包在内的多项议题，这些议题涉及面之广，直接到影响到美国人中的核心主体。就算特朗普提不出一个具体的方案去解决问题，那又有什么关系？他只需戳破真相，将问题原原本本地摊出来，对制度体系早就愤懑不满的群众们，当然就觉得特朗普说到了他们的心坎里，把他们的心声给讲了出来。“美国的伟大复兴”，也许没有什么具体含义，却至少可以鼓舞人心！
What did the Democrats do to counter this? Remember this attempt?
在这滔滔民意面前，民主党人却硬要去触逆鳞。 记得下面这玩意嘛？
(图片) 标语："美国已经很棒哒"
“MAGA” was reaching out to those who felt their concerns were being ignored by the party that had ruled for the past two terms. It showed that their problems were being acknowledged, at the very least. And what voters saw in this attempted rebuttal, was the Democratic party once again sweeping their concerns under the rug, telling disillusioned members who had voted for them before that the country was already great and that no change was necessary.
民主党已经执政两届。民众的一些诉求却一直被忽视， 而这时，“MAGA”运动（译者注：Make America Great Again “美国的伟大复兴” 特朗普的竞选口号）却给他们救场来了。在特朗普的竞选运动中，这些人的诉求至少得到了正面承认与回应。相比之下， 民主党却一直在掩耳盗铃，给选民灌输“美国已经足够优秀，变革没有必要”。结果，曾给民主党投过票的选民，对他们也不敢再抱有任何幻想。
“Make America Great Again” resonated with those who wanted solutions.
对那些迫切希望解决问题的人，“美国伟大复兴”的口号切实地契合了他们的诉求
Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign struggled for a while to come up with a good slogan. At first, they resorted to simple statements on her website, such as
“We cannot afford a Donald Trump presidency.”
于此同时，希拉里·克林顿的竞选团队也在构思自己的竞选口号，憋了好半天，才在她的网站上放出一个大招：
“特朗普当总统？咱玩不起！”
Not too inspirational. Who’s the one running the fear campaign now?
励志吗？ 呵呵。要真说谁在煽动恐惧的话，希拉里：
“我不是针对谁，我是说在座的各位，都是垃圾”
Then they shopped around some more, and ultimately settled on “I’m With Her”. This was used all the way through Election Day.
然后他们又兜兜兜转半天，终于把标语定了下来：
“我与‘她’同在.”
这条标语一直用到了最后。
Not only did their indecisiveness on a catchy slogan hurt their marketplace exposure time (and people who work in branding will know this all too well) but the slogan itself was hardly inspirational to those with legitimate concerns. It simply oozed selfishness.
挑个朗朗上口的宣传标语，他们也迟疑不决，这使得公关时间和媒体曝光度不足，推广效果便大打折扣（品牌行业工作的人对此应该熟之甚稔)。对那些需要渠道发出合理诉求的选民来说，这样的标语有啥子积极意义可言? 它流露的，只有“人人为我”的自私观念。
Voters saw Trump as: “MAGA, we have problems but I will fix them for you”
在选民眼里，特朗普的形象：
“美国伟大复兴：为了美国人民，虽然困难重重，也要一往无前”
While they saw Hillary as: “Be with me and help me become president. At least I’m not Trump. He’s racist. Me me me, it’s my turn.”
而希拉里的形象：
“投票给我撒，让我当总统呀！至少我没特朗普那么锉，他就是个种族主义者。投给我投给我投给我，（总统轮流做），今年轮到我”
[插一句：特朗普的群众集会上，喊得最多的是“U.S.A”(也有Lock Her Up; Trump the Bitch)；
希拉里的群众集会上，喊得最多的，是“Hillary”]
One slogan was a rallying cry for all of America.
The other slogan was all about Hillary Clinton.
特朗普的口号，是美国公民的呼声；
克林顿的口号，是在为自己的加冕之路鼓劲。
(高下立判)
And then we go to the debates.
下一个，到了辩论阶段。
What did Trump keep on doing in the debates? He kept on highlighting the struggles of the blue-collar workers, even in blue states. Even during questions that had nothing to do with them, he kept on bringing the topic back to why jobs were becoming scarce, and what he would do (albeit vaguely) to fix it. Clinton’s platform was largely focused on still attacking his flaws and defending herself against her own baggage rather than acknowledging the suffering voters in the blue states that she thought were hers from the start.
三场辩论期间，特朗普在干什么？他一再地指出美国蓝领工人此刻的挣扎困境，即使身处蓝州（民主党州）时，他也不停地在强调这一点。正式辩论中，即使是在不相干的议题下，特朗普也屡屡向主持人和观众提起，为什么工作岗位在流失，如何（虽然阐述得语焉不详）将这些工作岗位带回来。克林顿呢？她卯足了劲，一边人身攻击特朗普的个人缺点，一边为自己的历史污点洗地。许多选民，甚至是蓝州的选民，他们正苦苦挣扎的事实，希拉里压根没打算去回应。
The silent majority of those states had other plans.
“沉默的多数”，他们心里，自然另有想法。
The Emails + Wikileaks邮件+维基解密
I really wonder how Hillary will feel from now every time she opens an email browser and realize what her past actions cost her. The email scandal could have gone away had she told the truth about what it was that she deleted. But she didn’t.
我很好奇，现在希拉里每次打开邮件浏览器时是啥表情？她有没有意识到，因为这个错误的决定【国务卿任上，私设邮件服务器处理国务院事务（美国国务卿相当于中国外交部长）】，自己付出了多大代价？如果她当初就讲出实情，将被删除邮件的内容告知（国会与公众），这件丑闻很快就会被人遗忘，但她却没有，她选择了隐瞒和撒谎。
Supporters tried to say that they were insignificant. But if the contents were insignificant, why was she trying so desperately to hide them?
他的支持者试图狡辩，称这些都是小事，无足轻重。可要是真的无足轻重，她为什么又要拼了老命掩藏呢？
（译者注：
希拉里删除了39000件邮件，其中包括涉密邮件。在收到国会传票后，她指示手下，以暴力方式，物理粉碎自己的私人通讯设备。
她的国会证词，已被FBI局长证实，其中有伪证成分。
在美国，在法庭或国会里，宣誓后作伪证是重罪。
当年时任总统比尔·克林顿在法庭上宣誓后，却称自己跟莱温斯基没有发生性关系。后来丑闻捅出时，因为做伪证(不是因为通奸)差点被国会弹劾）
And then there were the Wikileaks, every day pumping out more and more evidence about Clinton’s media collusion, her receiving debate questions ahead of time, proof of the DNC sabotaging Bernie, the questionable use of charity money, and basically verifying that accusations dismissed by the Clinton campaign as conspiracies were indeed true.
接下来，又来了维基泄密登场。维基泄密组织，每天都在网络上发布海量信息和证据：克林顿跟媒体窜通、在辩论前私相授受辩论议题搞作弊、DNC暗中给桑德斯下绊子、(克林顿)慈善基金账款的不当使用，以及克林顿拼命想撇清最终却坐实的各种阴谋论。
While the mainstream media outlets refused to cover this, the silent majority were already committed to learning what they needed to further their conviction.
主流媒体虽然不肯报道这些消息，但“沉默的多数”却决心挖出这些黑材料，这下，更证实了他们先前的推断。
Liberals who were still with her tried to blow off the whole thing; there was no reason to think that she had committed anything sketchy.
自由派依旧想把这件事大事化小、小事化了，希望将这些丑闻轻描淡写地处理掉；没有理由相信她干了什么见不得光的事，他们如是说
The silent majority had all the reasons they needed.
但“沉默的大多数”，却已有了充足的理由做出自己的决定。
Vote Wars: Episode III
Revenge of the Si - lent Majority
沉默选民的复仇
And then they struck. On Election Day, the silent majority flipped the predictions (by five thirty eight, the supposed gold standard) by turning crucial historically blue states red, and then continuing the rampage. As the map started bleeding red in parts it shouldn’t have, the media outlets panicked. It was easy enough before the election to claim that there was no way for Trump to win, in hopes of discouraging voters. But they were powerless when the actual election was underway.
沉默的选民开始反击了。选举当天，这些原本不出声的选民，纷纷出来投票，彻底逆转了民意调查的预测结果。关键蓝州，历史性地被逆转成红州，颜色还越来越深。选举局势分布图上，随着红色在不该出现的地方出现地越来越多，媒体开始慌神了。选举前，他们可以趾高气昂地宣布特朗普没有一丁点可能获胜，借此打击亲特朗普选民们的士气。但是等选举正式拉开帷幕后，他们再也无能为力了。
The above graphic shows how every mainstream media prediction was wildly inaccurate. Many who gambled on the election and lost money can thank the mainstream media for influencing them.
上面的图线显示出，所有媒体的预测，都错得离谱。按照媒体预测去下注赌钱，输得底裤都当掉的人，这下可以找媒体讨个说法了。
This is a historic election that will go down in the books. Trump fought against a ridiculously large gauntlet of contenders in the primaries, and won. He fought against his own party refusing to back him. He recovered from his own party betraying him after his leaked comments about grabbing women. He fought against every underhanded tactic the DNC threw at him, media collusion, every mainstream media outlet being against him, his supporters being silenced, and won.
这是一场历史性选举，注定将载入史册。在初选中，特朗普遭到党内一众对手令人窒息的围攻，最终却艰难取胜，收获提名；之后，他的政党不愿意为他背书，在性骚扰言论泄露出来后，本党同僚纷纷跳船，但他又挺住了，慢慢回血，原地复活；DNC（民主党全国委员会）一直用下三滥的阴招招呼他，跟媒体勾结在一块儿抹黑他；主流媒体一次又一次地发声反对他；他的支持者被迫匿声，不敢支持他——可他还是笑到了最后。
Has there ever been another moment in history when a billionaire was the underdog?
历史上何曾有过这么奇葩一幕：一个亿万富翁，落水狗般被人喊打？
Academics, from now and possibly centuries later (if we as a species make it) will study and analyze this election. And I hope that right now, despite almost every liberal crying about how racism and bigotry are what drove these results, that they realize there were many factors at play here.
学术界，接下来几个世纪都有活儿干了，他们得把这场选举里里外外分析研究。虽然学术界现在叫着欢，哭喊着这次的选举结果被种族主义和冥顽不灵的旧思想“操纵”了，我还是希望他们能好好研究，看清楚决定这场选举结果隐藏着的诸多因素。
Racism? This was the same country that elected Obama. Twice. And some states that gave their votes to him now gave them to Trump.
说什么种族主义啊？这个国家当初可是把奥巴马选上了总统，而且是两次！而那些投票给特朗普的州，当初也曾是奥巴马的真爱粉。
Bigotry? The definition of bigotry is the refusal to acknowledge other viewpoints. And by nonstop claiming it was the fault of a racist country, the losing side is fulfilling this requirement.
说啥子冥顽不灵嘞？冥顽不灵的意思，是拒绝承认别人的（不同）观点。不停地叫嚣指责这场选举之所以出现这样的结果，是因为这个国家已经堕落成种族主义国度，这种行径才称得上一句“冥顽不灵”吧！
Rather, this whole mess was the fault of the DNC, who not only screwed themselves over, in which they deserve the loss, but who also unfairly screwed the members of their own party over, who did not deserve this.
不过，现在一团混乱的局面，民主党全国委员会要负很大的责任。他们自己坑了自己，算自作自受；但其他很多人，其实是被这些废材拖累到现在这般田地。
If your side lost in this election, recognize where the blame truly lies. Demonize the other side all you want, but recognize that the very ones who tried to lead you to victory performed selfish actions without your consent, used underhanded tactics, undermined democracy, divided the country by promoting intolerance to different political beliefs, withheld crucial information about your candidate’s shady dealings, and ultimately lost it for you.
在本届大选中，如果你是属于失利的一方，你们就得好好反省，这口大锅到底该谁来背。你们尽可以污蔑对手一方，但最后也必须认识清楚，正是那群打算领导你们走向胜利的人，未经你们的许可，肆意妄为，中饱私囊，谋一己之私；是他们，使用下三滥的手段，践踏民主制度，排斥异己，撕裂国家；是他们，明知克林顿种种幕后交易的内幕，却私自隐瞒了消息。是他们，该负起全部的责任。
You did your part. Your party didn’t.
你尽了自己的一份力量，你的党呢?
译者后记：
关于版权的问题，我已经跟原作者取得联系，获得授权。
知友在评论区指出的技术性问题，已经修改更新过。
关于翻译风格问题，
一来这篇文章太长，文字处理得如果比较呆板，写得很累，读得也很累。翻译时脑洞开一开其实很有意思，像是在自己跟自己玩文字游戏。
二来是我个人的偏向问题，我觉得翻译应该是面对读者的，读者倘有能力，大可以自行阅读原文；如果只读中文，又何必读洋绉绉的古怪文章?
过去老一辈的翻译家比如鲁迅先生，强调“硬译”，要保留原文的行文特点，这是出于学习外国语言的长处，改造旧文学、发展白话文的目的。现在已经没有这个必要，读者已经是以接受信息为主要目的了。
至于政治倾向性、词语选择情绪化的问题，大家尽可以批评，但是我也不会专门去改了，那么做，又得把文章改到伤筋动骨。
其实处理正式公文时，我还是规规矩矩，按照公文风格处理的。参见之前的回答中，我翻译的FBI 局长(重启邮件门调查前)通知国会的信函：
如何看待 FBI 在 2016 年 10 月 29 日重启调查希拉里的「邮件门」？
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