China Returns to Trade Surplus as Exports Rebound -- Update
China Returns to Trade Surplus as Exports Rebound -- Update
By Mark Magnier
BEIJING--China's exports and trade surplus increased more than expected in March on improved global demand, underpinning expectations that next week's read on growth in the first quarter will show steady economic momentum.
Exports increased 16.4% in March from a year earlier reversing a 1.3% decline in February, while imports rose by 20.3% compared with February's 38.1% increase, the General Administration of Customs said Thursday. That combined into a March trade surplus of $23.93 billion, compared with February's $9.15 billion deficit.
The data was roundly better than expected: Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast 4.9% growth in exports, 18.4% growth in imports and a $12 billion trade surplus.
China hasn't seen the sort of sustained monthly export growth of neighboring economies such as Taiwan and South Korea in recent months, and economists questioned whether the strong March figures are sustainable. It could take a few months for a fuller picture to emerge, they added.
"The good part is, we're seeing double-digit growth [in trade]. The bad part is, it's not sustainable," said Commerzbank AG economist Zhou Hao. "I don't think China has a big pickup in demand."
Next week's growth figures are expected to show that the economy expanded by at least 6.8% year on year in the quarter, matching fourth-quarter levels. Economists forecast that a stimulus-fueled economic boost in the first half of 2017 will tail off in the second half, though they expect China will reach its annual growth target of "about 6.5%."
While China's trade situation has improved with stronger global demand, uncertainties remain, said customs spokesman Huang Songping at a press conference.
A cloud hanging over China's trade outlook is its relations with the U.S. after Donald Trump threatened during his presidential campaign to target Beijing's trade practices. Tensions eased somewhat after a summit in Florida last week, where Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to a "100-day action plan" on trade.
