石油降价，别光看供求。生产成本也都降了。WSJ说了，shale技术革命5、60都赚钱。

而且这些shale油企，都是高固定成本，怎样都只能尽量才，何况还赚钱？只要，价钱大于VC就得采。所以产量只会增不会减。因为你把油田关了，固定成本还是不变的。

沙特产量增了，出口却少了，因为有成本更低的。沙特也想100多卖，可是有人90多就卖中国了。

“Chinese refiners are favoring supplies from Oman and South America over Saudi Arabia as their prices relative to output are more competitive,” Amy Sun, an analyst with Shanghai-based ICIS-C1 Energy, a consultant, said by phone from Guangzhou. “China is also increasing imports from Russia with a new contract signed last year.”

Crude supplies from Colombia cost on average $94.56 a barrel last month and Brazilian imports were $95.27, while Saudi shipments were at $102.30 a barrel, Bloomberg calculations based on customs data show. PetroChina Co.’s Liaohe plant in northern China refined about 30,000 tons of Colombian crude as of Oct. 30 for the first time, its parent China National Petroleum Corp. said in a newsletter on its website yesterday.

Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-22/china-cuts-saudi-oil-imports-amid-colombia-shipment-boost.html