covid死亡率by age: 55岁以下占比8%。考虑excess死亡55岁以下死亡率可能更高。

来源: huntridge 2020-12-09 18:29:59 [] [博客] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读: 次 (4463 bytes)
本文内容已被 [ huntridge ] 在 2020-12-09 19:47:33 编辑过。如有问题,请报告版主或论坛管理删除.

1。 不考虑excess死亡

https://www.heritage.org/data-visualizations/public-health/covid-19-deaths-by-age/

According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, COVID-19 is deadliest among older populations. In fact, through December 292 percent of COVID-19 deaths nationwide have occurred among those ages 55 or older. Only 0.2 percent were younger than 25. This trend can also be found on the state level.

注意- 下面看图判断不准,正确可能还是按原文计算得到8%

由图可以看出25-34年龄段约是25岁以下的5倍,35-44年龄段约是25岁以下的15倍,45-54年龄段约是25岁以下的37倍。所以55岁以下死亡率占比约=0.2%(1+5+15+37)=11%。

2. 考虑excess死亡

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

The total number of excess deaths (deaths above average levels) from January 26 through October 3 ranged from a low of approximately 841 in the youngest age group (<25 years) to a high of 94,646 among adults aged 75–84 years.§§ However, the average percentage change in deaths over this period compared with previous years was largest for adults aged 25–44 years (26.5%) (Figure 2). Overall, numbers of deaths among persons aged <25 years were 2.0% below average,¶¶ and among adults aged 45–64, 65–74 years, 75–84, and ≥85 years were 14.4%, 24.1%, 21.5%, and 14.7% above average, respectively.

所有跟帖: 

对啊死亡率by年龄 -huntridge- 给 huntridge 发送悄悄话 huntridge 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/09/2020 postreply 18:37:27

对个P。 -鬼不灵- 给 鬼不灵 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/09/2020 postreply 18:39:21

死亡率=死亡数/总病例 -huntridge- 给 huntridge 发送悄悄话 huntridge 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/09/2020 postreply 18:42:45

请别改原文“55岁以下11%”。这是在主题by age之下。 -huntridge- 给 huntridge 发送悄悄话 huntridge 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/09/2020 postreply 18:52:31

这是要把8866 又 勾引出来的话题 -orlandomagic- 给 orlandomagic 发送悄悄话 orlandomagic 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/09/2020 postreply 18:41:54

这么高?看文字,好像是年龄比例吧? -直言好- 给 直言好 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/09/2020 postreply 18:51:14

by age就是年龄比例 -huntridge- 给 huntridge 发送悄悄话 huntridge 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/09/2020 postreply 18:53:46

加了占比更清楚一些。 -huntridge- 给 huntridge 发送悄悄话 huntridge 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/09/2020 postreply 18:56:22

不是死亡率吧?是死者按年龄分布。既然所有死者中55岁以上占92%,那么55岁以下的死者就占8%,100%-92%=8%。怎么会是 -super_cat- 给 super_cat 发送悄悄话 (0 bytes) () 12/09/2020 postreply 19:20:03

是这个意思。by age就是按年龄比例,俺是按图计算的。92%按图不对。加了占比还不清楚吗? -huntridge- 给 huntridge 发送悄悄话 huntridge 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/09/2020 postreply 19:22:40

92%按图好像不对 -huntridge- 给 huntridge 发送悄悄话 huntridge 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/09/2020 postreply 19:28:38

知道错在那里。太集中于图结果没按图上数字计算, -huntridge- 给 huntridge 发送悄悄话 huntridge 的博客首页 (0 bytes) () 12/09/2020 postreply 19:34:19

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