没人买美国国债怎么办，美联储来买，2020年美联储要买40%的新债，厉害吧

The Fed Will Buy 40% Of US Treasury Net Issuance In 2020

by Tyler Durden

Sun, 12/15/2019 - 11:00

 

With the federal deficit running 22% higher during the first ten months of 2019 compared to the same period last year ($800bn vs. 655bn), student loans and other federal programs which increase the Treasury’s overall borrowing are running somewhat lower. Given the latest numbers, Deutsche Bank estimates Treasury’s total 2019 borrowing will come in at around the same level as 2018, at $1.1 trillion. Looking ahead to 2020, the bank projects the deficit will be $1.01 trillion, assuming similar levels of borrowing for federal loan programs as in 2019 and an unchanged Treasury cash balance. Given these figures, Treasury’s borrowing needs will be around $1.08 trillion in 2020.

 

Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank's Steven Zeng writes that the current auction calendar is well set up to meet Treasury’s 2020 financing needs. Against unchanged coupon auction sizes, the Treasury will raise $830bn in coupon issuance. T-bills will be used to plug the roughly $250bn gap. Bills will represent 23% of next year’s net issuance, just below the 25-33% target the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee has recommended.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So who will fund this third consecutive trillion dollar budget?

Unlike the last three years during which the Fed was tightening financial conditions, keeping POMO, QE and debt monetization in check, and was engaging in Quantitative Tightening, in 2020, Deutsche Bank calculates that the Fed will buy an estimated $420bn Treasuries through open-market operations, or 40% of net issuance (which includes Bills) as it continues implementing its balance sheet policy of building higher level of reserve balances and returning to an all-Treasury portfolio. In coupon securities, DB estimates the Fed will buy $153bn or 18% of net issuance next year (MBS principal payments are assumed to average out to $15 billion per month and 85% of that amount will be reinvested into coupon Treasuries.)

 

The Fed steps back into the bond market at a crucial time, just as foreign demand for US Treasuries at auction is weakening substantially.

 

 

所有跟帖： 

• 美联储是量化宽松以后才开始买美债的，也就十多年的事，这是日本化的趋势 -luxh009- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/15/2019 postreply 08:40:38

• 没办法，美国国民收入增长不大约2%，国债增长却是22%，外国人不买，只有美联储 -luxh009- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/15/2019 postreply 08:33:58

• 国债增长量比GDP增长量高，这一点不服不行。 -过来人2- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/15/2019 postreply 08:39:26

• 联储自己买才好，利息就不用付了。 -randomeSell- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/15/2019 postreply 09:11:48

• 真厉害。 -2010的冬天- ♂ (0 bytes) () 12/15/2019 postreply 09:12:00