Chuck is assuming (incorrectly) that turnout this year will be t

Chuck is assuming (incorrectly) that turnout this year will be the same demographically as 2012. It's wishful thinking. African American turnout will be lower, and its precisely that block of turnout that pulled Obama past Romney. It's possible that HRC could make up those lost votes with single young women on college campuses, but data says they are Bernie-crats. It comes down to whether Trump can turn out blue-collar voters that have previously sat out elections the way Obama turned out minority voters.