Updated : Hillary's math in TX/OH/PA after WI/HI losses

Previous one : 62% (see here for detail:
http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=currentevent&MsgID=195172 )



According to RealclearPolitcs.com, current stand on pledged delegates after WI,HI contest:

Obama: 1190
Hillary: 1033


Total delegates in TX, OH and PA to grab:

228 TX
161 OH
+ 158 PA
-----------------
547 Total


Assuming after contests in TX, OH, PA, Hillary's delegates Y even with Obama's X with Hillary win percentage z% of delegates.

These must hold true:

X = Y
x = (1 - z%) 547 + 1190
Y = z% 547 + 1033


Anwser Z = 64% !


That is, after WI/HI losss, Hillary must win, on average in those 3 states, 64% versus 38% on Obama. (Before WI/HI, odds was 62%) A political "next to impossible"

所有跟帖： 

• FL,MI 的票在两人差距不大的情况下，肯定会被考虑地。 -blue-falcon- ♂ (70 bytes) () 02/21/2008 postreply 21:42:19

• They will not be added as they are. FL/MI should redo it -baiwen- ♂ (0 bytes) () 02/21/2008 postreply 21:46:42

• 我就纳闷啊,你一共和党的,不去work on麦,费劲在这里吹捧奥打击希干嘛?明白了... -Jade2003- ♀ (139 bytes) () 02/22/2008 postreply 06:13:56