This weekend past, as regular listener, I listened to the talk radio program "Money Talk" by Bob Brinker. When he expectedly addressed the current state of US economy with respect to recession, he threw some numbers in the air that put things in kind of clear picture.
He said (I am paraphrasing) that by a technical definition of a recession which has been widely used by financial industry and other community in US, a recession is negative GDP for consecutive 2 quarters. Using that definition of recession to calculate the time of being in recession and the time of being not in recessions for past 25 years, here is tally up: for past 25 years, accumulatively, US has 1 year or so in recession and 23 and more years not in recession
Today, I read an article by Steven Rattner. He disputed some people's arguments and views that US economy heads into disastrous end or "Armageddon" as some called. He pointed to early 80s situation when similar situation as current subprime loans happened but resulted massive banks getting insolvent and stocks of major US banks plummeted into single-digit; and FED's fiscal policy drove key interest rate to 19% to fight inflation; Going back further into 70s, one can vividly recalled that economy then was mired in stagflation; If 70s was too far away, let's look 90s when dot-com bubble evaporated and NASDAQ fell by 78% amidst widespread corporate bankruptcies
He continues to confirm that the current economy is weak and recession odds are getting dangerously larger and real. But current financial situation of US is far better shape in comparison with 70s or 80s or 90s.
I could not help noticing the English word "recession" and its chinese version 衰退 . These 2 words convey the same meaning but with distinctive extent:
English word "recession" means low point of economic cycle. US public has well experienced and accepted it as normal economic phenomena
I hardly feel that the word 衰退 is right translation of the word recession.
Chinese word "衰退" seems to suggest permanent vicissitude of US economy and even US itself as nation sometimes. But this kind of view fits well with the mindsets of a lot of anti-America fans. They all seem to expect that an economic 911 may be eminent.
This group of people really needs to look back to cold war. During those years, there were a few of powerful countries with strong animosity towards US in the world . They not only dread and ill-wished US but actually tried to accomplish its collapse through actions.
The world is in a different time now. But with past in mind, current US subprime problem would be hardly called a problem and will be corrected by market without much repercussion in the months (not years) to come.
He said (I am paraphrasing) that by a technical definition of a recession which has been widely used by financial industry and other community in US, a recession is negative GDP for consecutive 2 quarters. Using that definition of recession to calculate the time of being in recession and the time of being not in recessions for past 25 years, here is tally up: for past 25 years, accumulatively, US has 1 year or so in recession and 23 and more years not in recession
Today, I read an article by Steven Rattner. He disputed some people's arguments and views that US economy heads into disastrous end or "Armageddon" as some called. He pointed to early 80s situation when similar situation as current subprime loans happened but resulted massive banks getting insolvent and stocks of major US banks plummeted into single-digit; and FED's fiscal policy drove key interest rate to 19% to fight inflation; Going back further into 70s, one can vividly recalled that economy then was mired in stagflation; If 70s was too far away, let's look 90s when dot-com bubble evaporated and NASDAQ fell by 78% amidst widespread corporate bankruptcies
He continues to confirm that the current economy is weak and recession odds are getting dangerously larger and real. But current financial situation of US is far better shape in comparison with 70s or 80s or 90s.
I could not help noticing the English word "recession" and its chinese version 衰退 . These 2 words convey the same meaning but with distinctive extent:
English word "recession" means low point of economic cycle. US public has well experienced and accepted it as normal economic phenomena
I hardly feel that the word 衰退 is right translation of the word recession.
Chinese word "衰退" seems to suggest permanent vicissitude of US economy and even US itself as nation sometimes. But this kind of view fits well with the mindsets of a lot of anti-America fans. They all seem to expect that an economic 911 may be eminent.
This group of people really needs to look back to cold war. During those years, there were a few of powerful countries with strong animosity towards US in the world . They not only dread and ill-wished US but actually tried to accomplish its collapse through actions.
The world is in a different time now. But with past in mind, current US subprime problem would be hardly called a problem and will be corrected by market without much repercussion in the months (not years) to come.
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