Korea would be another Iraq. Under current situation, it should be pointed out first that US would not attack North Korea even if China publicly and diplomatically announce that it will not protect North Korea.
That being said, a second Korean war will not be the same as Iraq for the following reasons:
1) Unlike Iraq, Korea is one-ethnicity country. N. Koreans do not view S. Koreans as enemy in their hearts
2) Unlike Iraq, Koreans, especially in the North, are not religious. They are secular. There is no radical reason for N. Koreans to sustain the fight.
3) Unlike Iraq, half of Korea is a US ally and she is much more economically advanced.
4) Disparity in technologies between N. Korea and US ally forces nowdays is much greater than in the first Korean War in 1950s
If China truly does not get involved in the war, a second Korea war will be short and easy for US but not necessarily for its allies in the region. Because there will be no post-war rebuild for US to involve as in Iraq. US simply air strike on the North and help advance South Korea soldiers and a few US soldiers on ground. On the other hand, S. Korea will have to do heavy lifting on rebuild after war but with help from UN and West. With it, S. Korea's economy will probably suffer from such a war and get rolled back at least 10 years
In spite of the above, Koreans are very cohesive and patriotic people. With South Koreans being main forces on ground and heavy UN and West economic aids following, 2 Koreas would be united peacefully. There would not be surgency as we are seeing in Iraq.
The reason that such a second Korea War is unlikely in reality lies in S. Korea and China. S.Korea simply does not have a will to fight while China is not willing to border with a West country. The last, not the least is that such a war could trigger a nuclear bomb explosion even with the most careful war planning.
There is another possibility that entertains some people's mind which I kind of like it:
Since China does not want to border with a West and nor does it want to see nuclear Japan, S. Korea and maybe Taiwan, I think it is logical for China to invade North Korea to their own regime change. A China's puppet government in the North will do the world and China a big favor:
For China: permanent non-nuclear buffer zone between West and China. It can extend China influence further into Pacific. it provides another special economic zone.
Through the war, Chinese army can get real taste in international conflict and gain very precious experience in it. The status of China, after war, will be greatly enhanced. It will emerge from the war as truly major power player. It has great deterrance to Taiwan.
For US: permanent non-nuclear Korea; US have more pretext to stay in Asia; Help US anti-terrism war in the world.
The only country that is not happy about this situation is of course South Korea. But with US coorporating with China in the region, it can be controlled because US does not want Korea united nor does China. A united Korea could spread trouble for US and its allies as well as China.
That being said, a second Korean war will not be the same as Iraq for the following reasons:
1) Unlike Iraq, Korea is one-ethnicity country. N. Koreans do not view S. Koreans as enemy in their hearts
2) Unlike Iraq, Koreans, especially in the North, are not religious. They are secular. There is no radical reason for N. Koreans to sustain the fight.
3) Unlike Iraq, half of Korea is a US ally and she is much more economically advanced.
4) Disparity in technologies between N. Korea and US ally forces nowdays is much greater than in the first Korean War in 1950s
If China truly does not get involved in the war, a second Korea war will be short and easy for US but not necessarily for its allies in the region. Because there will be no post-war rebuild for US to involve as in Iraq. US simply air strike on the North and help advance South Korea soldiers and a few US soldiers on ground. On the other hand, S. Korea will have to do heavy lifting on rebuild after war but with help from UN and West. With it, S. Korea's economy will probably suffer from such a war and get rolled back at least 10 years
In spite of the above, Koreans are very cohesive and patriotic people. With South Koreans being main forces on ground and heavy UN and West economic aids following, 2 Koreas would be united peacefully. There would not be surgency as we are seeing in Iraq.
The reason that such a second Korea War is unlikely in reality lies in S. Korea and China. S.Korea simply does not have a will to fight while China is not willing to border with a West country. The last, not the least is that such a war could trigger a nuclear bomb explosion even with the most careful war planning.
There is another possibility that entertains some people's mind which I kind of like it:
Since China does not want to border with a West and nor does it want to see nuclear Japan, S. Korea and maybe Taiwan, I think it is logical for China to invade North Korea to their own regime change. A China's puppet government in the North will do the world and China a big favor:
For China: permanent non-nuclear buffer zone between West and China. It can extend China influence further into Pacific. it provides another special economic zone.
Through the war, Chinese army can get real taste in international conflict and gain very precious experience in it. The status of China, after war, will be greatly enhanced. It will emerge from the war as truly major power player. It has great deterrance to Taiwan.
For US: permanent non-nuclear Korea; US have more pretext to stay in Asia; Help US anti-terrism war in the world.
The only country that is not happy about this situation is of course South Korea. But with US coorporating with China in the region, it can be controlled because US does not want Korea united nor does China. A united Korea could spread trouble for US and its allies as well as China.
