Throughout much of the developed world, gainful employment is seen as almost a fundamental right. But what if, in the not-too-distant future, there won’t be enough jobs to go around? That’s what some economists think will happen as robots and artificial intelligence increasingly become capable of performing human tasks. Of course, past technological upheavals created more jobs than they destroyed. But some labor experts argue that this time could be different: Technology is replacing human brains as well as brawn.
When politicians talk about jobs, they tend to focus on iconic, goods-producing industries, such as mining, steel production and auto making, that have traditionally been the hardest hit by global competition and technological progress. Lately, though, the loss of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. pales in comparison to the much larger losses in parts of the services sector.
Overall, services accounted for three-fourths of the job losses among more than 350 sectors of the private economy in the last year. That’s a big shift from previous decades, when goods-producing categories tended to suffer the most losses.
Top Job-Losing Subsectors as of April 2017
Goods
Services
Retail
Wired telecommunications carriers
–27.2K
Department stores
–26.8K
Sporting goods and musical instrument stores
–15.5K
Electronics stores
–15.0K
Clothing stores
–14.4K
The retail industry alone accounted for four of the ten subsectors with the biggest losses in the first four months of 2017, compared with the same period a year earlier
Newspaper, book, & directory publishers
–14.0K
Semiconductors & elec. comp.
–10.9K
Spectator sports
–10.7K
Aerospace products and parts
–10.4K
Printing & related activities
–10.2K
DATA: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
In the U.S., for example, department stores employ 25 times more workers than coal mining companies. And as customers increasingly purchased goods via the internet, average employment in the first four months of 2017 was down 26,800 from the same period a year earlier, against just 2,800 job losses in coal.
Job Losses in Coal Mining vs. Department Stores
Department Stores
Coal Mining
2017 employment: 1.28M
50.6K
2.8K jobs lost
26.8K jobs lost
DATA: BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS; EMPLOYMENT DATA ARE AVERAGES FOR FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2017; LOSSES ARE FROM COMPARISON TO THE SAME PERIOD IN 2016
The effect on labor markets of free-trade agreements and increased immigration has already caused significant political upheaval, as the resurgence of populism in the U.S. and Europe demonstrates. But some economists believe that the world is on the cusp of much bigger change, on the scale of the revolution brought about by industrialization in the 18th and 19th centuries. Researchers at the University of Oxford estimatethat nearly half of all U.S. jobs may be at risk in the coming decades, with lower-paid occupations among the most vulnerable.
Is Your Job At Risk? 2
-
Doctoral or Professional Degree
-
Master’s
-
Bachelor’s
-
Associate’s
-
Postsecondary Nondegree Award
-
Some College
-
High School Diploma or Equivalent
-
No Formal Education Credential
? Least likely to be automated
Most likely to be automated ?
DATA: FREY & OSBORNE, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS
